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Just an FYI for folks who haven’t heard yet… Tom Pelissero and I are doing A TON of Twins writing over at 1500ESPN.com as part of the new 1500 ESPN Twin Cities launch. Multiple updates every day, and musings about the Vikings, Twins, Wild and Gophers as well.

I won’t be posting nearly as many baseball articles on this blog, because quite frankly, it doesn’t make sense to double post when you can just find everything HERE.

Thanks for reading. Stay thirsty, my friends. Or something like that.

Flash back to Monday night’s season opener.

Eighth inning, Twins trailing 4-3, Michael Cuddyer on first base with one out, and Angels’ reliever Fernando Rodney had just missed the strike zone eight times in his first nine pitches (including the pitch Jason Kubel popped out on).

Delmon Young, who smacked a two-run bomb over the left field fence off Jered Weaver in the second inning, came up to the plate, swung at the first pitch, and grounded into a 6-4-3 double play to end the inning.

The Angels obviously went on to score two runs in the bottom of the eighth, thanks to back-to-back home runs by Hideki Matsui and Kendry Morales, to effectively put the game out of reach.

As awesome as it was to see Delmon rip a line drive over the left field fence to tie the game in the second inning, it was equally frustrating to see him swing at the first pitch against a pitcher who had very little command.

Overall, Delmon provided reasons for optimism on Monday night. Aside from the home run — which equaled his total from April and May combined in 2009 — Young also legged out an infield single and stole a base, thanks in large part to a more, shall we say, “trimmed” physique. Delmon also seems to have carried over the same swing mechanics that helped him hit .300/.322/.502 with nine home runs during the second half of the season last year, ditching the front leg kick for a more compact stride.

That said, Delmon has never shown a great sense of plate discipline, and it can be frustrating when he unloads on the first pitch in situations where conventional wisdom calls for a patient approach.

To put Delmon’s aggressiveness in perspective, only one player in all of baseball swung at the first pitch more often in 2009 — San Francisco’s Pablo Sandoval, who hacked at the first pitch in 48% of his plate appearances. Delmon took a cut 47% of the time.

Delmon also swung at the first pitch twice in four plate appearances in Monday’s season opener.

Swinging at the first pitch doesn’t necessarily correlate with being a good or a bad hitter. Sandoval (.330/.387/.556, 25 HR) was one of the best hitters in baseball last season. Jeff Francoeur and Carlos Gomez, for instance, who both sat near the top of this list in 2008, were two of baseball’s worst hitters that season.

The first pitch in an at-bat can actually turn into quite the chess match. With advanced scouting reports and pitch-by-pitch data, it’s no secret which hitters frequently swing at the first pitch, and likewise, it’s also no secret which pitchers are pumping first pitch fastballs at a high rate.

Now, granted, Delmon’s offense improved considerably during the second half of 2009, but the biggest difference between him and Sandoval was the ability to make contact on pitches out of the strike zone — not just on the first pitch, but on all pitches.

When Sandoval (age 23) swung at pitches out of the strike zone last year, he made contact 75% of the time. When Delmon (age 24) swung at pitches out of the zone, he made contact only 54% of the time.

In other words, Sandoval’s free-swinging style leads to a ton of contact, much like Vladimir Guerrero. Delmon’s free swinging style is… well… still a work in progress, and pitchers will (or at least should) continue to exploit that aggressiveness by extending the strike zone on the first pitch.

But if he can continue to hit bombs to left field on a semi-regular basis, Delmon’s occasional and/or frequent over-aggressiveness will be much easier to swallow. Not to mention, his “calmer” batting stance these days allows him to wait on pitches a split second longer.

We’ll revisit this later in the season.

J.J. Hardy emerged as one of Major League Baseball’s top-hitting middle infielders from 2007 to 2008 when he hit .280/.333/.470 with 50 home runs over the two seasons. Hardy was also rated as one of the top defensive shortstops in baseball over that period.

In 2009, however, Hardy’s offensive numbers dropped off the planet. His batting average plummeted to .229, he reached base at a paltry .302 clip, and he hit only 11 home runs before being demoted to triple-A in favor of top prospect Alcides Escobar, who remains the Brewers’ starting shortstop.

Hardy told reporters in February that 2009 was the most miserable year of his baseball career — high school, college and minor leagues included. He pressed all season, never felt fully comfortable, and wasn’t having any fun.

“Mentally, I was really hard on myself,” Hardy said in February. “I felt like if I had a decent day, a 2-for-4 or 1-for-3, I wasn’t happy. I just came to the ball park every day in a bad mood.

“I felt like no matter what I did, even if it was a good day, I just wasn’t happy with it. I’m definitely going to learn from that and have a little bit more fun.”
So what went wrong last year? And what is Hardy doing to fix it?

For starters, against right-handed pitching last season, Hardy swung and missed at significantly more sliders than in 2007-2008 (16.4% whiffs, as opposed to 11.9% between ’07-’08), especially sliders thrown out of the strike zone. This is a typical symptom of pressing, and it can happen to anyone (see: Cuddyer, Michael), but sliders weren’t Hardy’s only issues.

Hardy’s main problems in 2009 actually stem from struggles against left-handed pitching, which is odd because Hardy is right-handed, and he generally crushes lefties.

1.) In 2007, Hardy posted a .950 OPS against lefties, followed by a .977 clip in 2008. But in 2009, Hardy’s OPS against lefties dipped all the way to .539.

2.) Hardy rarely hit line drives off left-handed pitching in ’09 (8%, as opposed to 21% in ’08), but instead hit an abnormally high amount of grounders off lefties (54%, as opposed to 39% in ’08).

What gives?

“I had a lot of bad habits,” Hardy said on Saturday.

“I just took a ton of bad swings last year. It’s hard to get into the mechanical stuff, but just taking correct swings, lots of correct swings. That’s basically what it takes is just a lot of good swings to get rid of the bad habits.”

This spring, Hardy has spent a considerable amount of time studying tape and working with hitting coach Joe Vavra to correct some mechanical flaws in his swing.

“I couldn’t (drive the ball to opposite field) with where my hands were. There was a lot of adjustments I’ve made this spring training, and I feel pretty good about it.”

It’s extremely rare when a hitter fares worse against opposite-handed pitching like Hardy did in 2009. Assuming he has indeed pinpointed the mechanical flaws, it would be extremely surprising if Hardy didn’t turn the tide against lefties in 2010.

Earlier this offseason, CHONE and Baseball Prospectus released their projected standings for the 2010 MLB regular season, and both have the Twins winning the division.

CHONE and Baseball Prospectus are just two of many projection systems, but they tend to be the most credible from year to year. Baseball Prospectus famously predicted the Rays’ rise to relevance before the 2008 season when hardly anybody else had them on the radar.

In 2009, CHONE had the Yankees, Indians and Angels winning their respective American League divisions, with the Red Sox earning a wild card berth. CHONE also had the Phillies, Cubs and Dodgers winning the NL divisions, with the Braves earning the wild card.

CHONE obviously whiffed on the Twins and Cardinals last year, who both won their divisions, but it nailed the Braves, who won 86 games (even though Atlanta missed the playoffs). Colorado wound up catching fire and earning the NL wild card slot.

Now, obviously, projecting baseball standings can be an inexact science, because injuries and various unforeseen productivity issues almost always pop up. But ultimately, CHONE and Baseball Prospectus are pretty solid over the long run. That said, a team like Colorado or Minnesota will sneak out a few extra wins from time to time.

With all of that said, here’s what CHONE and Baseball Prospectus predict for the 2010 season:

CHONE

AL East: Yankees (96 wins)
AL Central: Twins (85 wins)
AL West: Rangers (86 wins)
AL wild card: Red Sox (93 wins)

NL East: Braves (89 wins)
NL Central: Cardinals (91 wins)
NL West: Dodgers/Rockies tie (83 wins)
NL wild card: Phillies (87 wins)

* CHONE also has the White Sox and the Tigers finishing below .500, with the Indians finishing 2nd in the AL Central at 81-81. The Rays are slated to win 88 games, but miss the playoffs.

Baseball Prospectus

AL East: Red Sox (96 wins)
AL Central: Twins (81 wins)
AL West: Rangers/A’s tie (83 wins)
AL wild card: Yankees/Rays tie (91 wins)

NL East: Phillies (90 wins)
NL Central: Cardinals (88 wins)
NL West: Rockies (86 wins)
NL wild card: Braves (86 wins)

* Prospectus clearly sees the American League as very “middle of the road.” In fact, these are all very conservative predictions for some reason. The biggest surprise is probably the A’s emerging as AL West contenders.

My Predictions

AL East: Yankees (96 wins)

The AL East, once again, will house three of the best teams in baseball between the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays. These are all playoff-worthy teams, but the Yankees have “mystique,” cool pinstripes, and Derek Jeter. So I’ll pick them.

AL Central: Twins (89 wins)

The reason CHONE and Baseball Prospectus have the Twins winning only 85 and/or 81 games (but still winning the division) is because they probably don’t trust the starting pitching. Valid argument, but I firmly believe Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey are in line for very solid seasons. Call me an optimist. The lineup speaks for itself.

AL West: Rangers (86 wins)

Seattle is the team to watch for the next few years, but the Rangers look like the team to beat in 2010. Texas’ offense will certainly mash, assuming Josh Hamilton, Ian Kinsler (who will miss most of April) and Nelson Cruz stay healthy. Also watch out for potential young studs 1B Chris Davis, SS Elvis Andrus, and CF Julio Borbon. The starting pitching after Rich Harden leaves a little something to be desired, but scoring 800+ runs on offense should help.

AL wild card: Rays (90 wins)

The Red Sox will be awesome too, but I have a sneaky feeling about the Rays. They play fantastic defense, draw a ton of walks, hit for a ton of power, and have some lively young arms. The Rays’ chances of outlasting Boston and/or New York likely rides on how well David Price, Wade Davis, and Rafael Soriano can pitch. I love all three.

NL East: Braves (87 wins)

The Phillies’ bullpen and bottom of the rotation make me nervous. Roy Halladay and Cole Hamels will keep Philly in contention all year, along with one of the better lineups in baseball, but the Braves are the under-the-radar team to watch here. With SP Tommy Hanson and OF Jason Heyward, Atlanta has the 2nd-best pitching prospect and top hitting prospect ready to roll from opening day. A memorable send-off for Bobby Cox?

NL Central: Cardinals (90 wins)

The gambler in me wants to pick the Cubs, but with Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright spinning gems at the top of the rotation, St. Louis is a tough beat. Not to mention a heart of the lineup that includes Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday, Colby Rasmus and Ryan Ludwick — easily 110-130 HRs right there. Not to mention, the Cardinals’ bullpen leads the majors in “beard thickness”…

NL West: Rockies (86 wins)

Is there a more anonymous team in baseball than the Colorado Rockies? A far cry from the mid-90′s days of Dante Bichette, Andres Gallarraga, Larry Walker, etc. The difference here, besides a humidor and fewer moon shots, is pitching. The Rockies’ pitching staff finished 5th in the league last year in FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, similar to ERA), and they allowed the 5th-fewest amount of home runs. Missing Huston Street for a month (shoulder) will hurt, but the Rockies will score a ton of runs anyways.

NL wild card: Phillies (86 wins)

The Dodgers, Marlins, Cubs and Giants should hang around deep into the season, but the Phillies have too much offensive firepower to go along with Halladay and Hamels. Would love to see what they can do in the playoffs once again.

Oh, hey there… It’s been a while.

I jumped ship to AM 1500 (soon to be 1500 ESPN Twin Cities on April 12) about two weeks ago, and I’ve been trying to find a balance between doing a noon-2 show with Patrick Reusse, planning for the launch of the 1500 ESPN website, and maintaining MNPokerMag and Minnesota State Poker Tour momentum.

Over the last couple weeks, you may or may not have read Parker Hageman’s Q & A with Twins assistant GM Rob Antony regarding the Twins and statistical analysis. If you haven’t, do so, and also read Aaron Gleeman’s level-headed analysis of the situation.

In the Q & A with Hageman, Antony acknowledges his (and the organization’s) incredible lack of knowledge in the world of modern statistical analysis, but he does say the Twins have hired someone to dip into sabermetrics. Despite their success over the last 10 years or so, the Twins are at a huge disadvantage to almost every team in baseball by not keeping up with the wOBAs, BABIPs, FIPs, UZRs, wRCs, WARs, etc. of the world.

In February and March of 2009, I actually had a few lengthy off-the-record conversations with Antony regarding statistical analysis. He even allowed me to sit down in his Fort Myers office last spring training to go over the player projection database I created, which was driven heavily by BABIPs and FIP-related numbers.

I can tell you this… The Twins began internal discussions about sabermetrics before LAST season, which leads me to believe the acquisitions of Orlando Hudson, Jim Thome and J.J. Hardy are no fluke, while the departure of Orlando Cabrera (despite what some short-sighted Twins fans believe) was likely not a tear-filled goodbye.

Or maybe it’s just pure coincidence…

Am I disappointed that the Twins waited so long to jump on a bandwagon that nearly every other team in baseball has already jumped on? Yes. But they certainly bought themselves time over the years by winning division titles.

The Twins are late to the party for sure, but assuming they do genuinely dive into some of the saber-driven stuff, it will only make them a better organization.