Nathan is among the top three closers in baseball over the last five years (Mariano Rivera, Jonathan Papelbon), and replacing him will be a difficult task for Ron Gardenhire.

Of course, I would argue that the closer role is the most ridiculous, meaningless, and over-valued position in all of sports, but most Major League Baseball teams are still caught up in the baseball cultural pressure to pay one person $10 million per season to hold a 3-run lead.

Ideally, the best bullpen strategy would be to have a core group of anywhere between two and four relief pitchers (at least one lefty) who can mix and match, depending on lefty/righty and other match-up factors, from the 7th inning on.

In fact, there are numerous times throughout the season where a manager will summon an inferior relief pitcher (like Bobby Keppel) in a crucial situation in the 7th or 8th inning, only to see the game implode. But because baseball culture says to ONLY bring closers in for the 9th inning, it’s sacrilege to do anything different.

For more on this, Joe Sheehan wrote an amazing article three years ago that details a late-inning situation between the Indians and Tigers (if this is subscription-based, I apologize).

Anyhow, because Ron Gardenhire is highly unlikely to deviate from the baseball cultural norm, we should probably start looking at the Twins’ new closer candidates.

I’m sure over the next few weeks you’ll hear baseball talking heads discuss how “mental toughness” is the most important factor when it comes to closing. Mental toughness is obviously important if you are a closer, but mental toughness is also critical in any sport at any position that requires a player to operate under pressure.

The problem is that measuring mental toughness is almost impossible. For instance, how “mentally tough” is Brad Lidge? He can be the best closer in baseball one year, then completely melt down the next. What about Jonathan Papelbon? Regarded as one of the best closers in baseball over the last three years, but he blew a huge save in the playoffs last year.

The first step to picking out a closer is to find a guy whose skillset matches that of previously successful closers. THEN we’ll worry about mental toughness after that.

James Bond might be the most mentally tough fictional person in the world, but I doubt he can blow a fastball by Kevin Youkilis with runners in scoring position…

Let’s take a peak:

Traits of top closers, historically:

1.) Ability to limit home runs. Generally, if a relief pitcher is allowing more than .8 home runs per 9 innings, he’s much more likely to blow saves. End of story. There are almost no exceptions to this rule.

2.) Strikeout-to-walk ratio. Mariano Rivera is the king of K/BB ratio (8:1 over the last two years, which is ridiculous). Anything over 2.5:1 is pretty solid, generally speaking. Joe Nathan was almost always over 4:1.

3.) High K totals. Most of the top closers in baseball also strike out at least 8 or 9 batters per nine innings. Of course, there are some exceptions, although some would argue Ryan Franklin’s 2009 season was somewhat “fluky.” When pitching in “high leverage” situations, where even one extra base runner can drastically alter the result of a one or two-run game in the 9th inning, having a closer that avoids contact is essential.

4.) There are other isolated traits, such as pitchers who induce a ton of ground balls, but quite frankly, I don’t want my closer pitching to contact. That opens too many doors for bad luck to creep in. I want my closer to strike people out.

Some folks might ask about trading for somebody outside the organization, but the Twins are highly unlikely to add salary.

So who is the best in-house option for the Twins? Let’s break it down.

* First of all, knowing Gardenhire, we can eliminate Anthony Slama, Rob Delaney, Loek Van Mil, and any other young pitcher who may be worth considering. Gardy is grizzled. He wants “experience.”

Matt Guerrier? Guerrier had an awesome 2009 season, posting a 2.36 ERA and his lowest walk rate (1.89 BB/9) ever. But Guerrier doesn’t tally very many strikeouts (never more than 6.96 per 9 innings), and he historically allows WAY too many HRs to be a closer (22 over the last two years, in fewer than 150 innings).

Jesse Crain? Talk about an enigma. Crain was dubbed as the closer-in-waiting back in 2004-2005… But we’re still waiting… Crain was actually pretty solid down the stretch last year, but his control is WAY too sporadic, and he still doesn’t strike out enough batters for my taste to be an adequate closer. Crain does a nice job limiting home runs (only 13 allowed since 2006), but I don’t see him as a good fit to close.

Pat Neshek? Maybe if this was 2007… But Neshek is coming off serious surgery of his own. Let’s give him a couple months before thrusting him into the closer role. Unless he goes lights out throughout the spring… Then maybe.

Jose Mijares? Without a doubt, one of the most talented relievers in the organization. He has a track record of high strikeout numbers, and his control certainly isn’t terrible. And he’s likely to improve entering his second full season. But there are two problems with making Mijares the new closer. 1.) He’s prone to giving up home runs, and this stems from his early minor league days as well. 2.) He’s projected as the only lefty in the Twins bullpen. If that’s the case, it wouldn’t make sense to save him for the 9th inning. As the only lefty, Mijares is much more valuable as a “roamer” between the 6th and 9th innings.

Jon Rauch? Rauch actually closed for the Nationals in 2008, saving 18 games. He has “experience,” which helps his case with Gardy, and his peripheral numbers have been pretty solid over the last few years — good control (fewer than 3 BB/9 over the last three years), and decent K numbers, but not spectacular (anywhere between 6.3 and 8.5 K/9). Unfortunately, Rauch can definitely fall victim to the long ball from time to time, although not nearly as often as Guerrier.

Francisco Liriano? Fits the bill, but would much rather see him in the starting rotation.

Others? Clay Condrey? Lowest strikeout totals of any reliever in baseball over the last two years, but he induces a ton of ground balls. Not a terrible option, especially with a solid infield defense. Glen Perkins? May actually land a roster spot with Nathan out, but still way too many question marks with injury and productivity to be considered as a closer. Brian Duensing, Anthony Swarzak, Jeff Manship? Highly unlikely. Although one of these guys may land a bullpen role as a result of the open roster spot.

My rankings, based on the above tidbits and “gut” feeling, I guess:

1.) Jon Rauch
2.) Jose Mijares
3.) Pat Neshek
4.) Matt Guerrier
5.) Jesse Crain
6.) Slama/Delaney/etc… Somebody young and new.

The show is broken into five parts:

I just spent the better part of two weeks in casino/poker-land up at Grand Casino Mille Lacs for the Minnesota State Poker Tour event, but with baseball season quickly approaching, I’m now in the process of dusting off the old sabermetric thinking cap.

Sort of.

As I mentioned a few months ago, I will no longer be doing player projections, nor will I be offering ridiculously in-depth sabermetric articles like I did in the past. It’s simply too time consuming.

But for everyone looking to gain an edge in their fantasy baseball leagues, or for people just looking for more interesting and accurate ways of predicting how players will perform, let me point you in the right direction.

BABIP. And BABIP’s offspring, LDBABIP, GBBABIP, and FBBABIP. (and BABIP’s step-son, BuntBABIP).

BABIP is “Batting Average on Balls In Play,” which is basically defined as “any batted ball.” LD, GB and FB are line drives, ground balls, and fly balls.

By now, the majority of MLB front offices pay close attention to stats like BABIP and its effects on offensive numbers (and in a pitcher’s case, how “lucky” or “unlucky” he is).

Why is BABIP important? Because it weeds out strikeouts and walks, which are both hitter skillsets that affect on base percentage and batting average, and tells you how often a hitter successfully reaches base when he makes contact. It also helps us pinpoint exactly what may have gone right or wrong for any particular hitter.

Let’s use Nick Punto as an example. Punto’s batting average and overall value as a hitter seem to fluctuate every other year. He was solid in 2006, terrible in 2007, solid in 2008, terrible in 2009, etc. Some people might suggest Punto is “due” in 2010, based on his “odd year/even year” track record. This is obviously laughable. His odd/even year pattern is a complete fluke.

A hitter of Punto’s skillset — slap-type hitter with speed and very little warning-track power — will historically see 27-29% of his ground balls go through for base hits, 13-16% of his fly balls drop for hits, and 69-73% of his line drives fall for hits.

In 2006, which was Punto’s breakout year offensively (.290 batting average), he saw 28% of his ground balls go for hits, 18% of his flies drop for hits, and 71% of his line drives drop in. His overall BABIP was .332, which is above league average.

In 2007, only 23% of Punto’s ground balls seeped through, along with 14% of his flies and 58% of his line drives. He finished the season with a .210 batting average.

Punto’s 2008 BABIP numbers were nearly identical to his 2006 numbers, and his average rose to .284 as a result.

In 2009, Punto’s batting average dropped back down to .228, so it comes as no surprise that only 20% of his ground balls went through for hits, along with 11% of his flies. 78% of his line drives fell in, which is actually quite fortunate, but not enough to make up for his low GBBABIP and FBBABIPs.

Does this all make sense? BABIP, walk rate, and strikeout rate are all connected on a string to form on base percentage.

In 2009, Nick Punto drew more walks (14%) and had more line drives fall in for hits (78%) than at any point in his entire career! This should have translated to a fantastic (for Punto, anyways) offensive season, but it didn’t.

So why did Punto have such a hard time buying base hits on ground balls and fly balls compared to league average and compared to his track record? To be honest, I really have no idea. Maybe he was hitting fewer HARD ground balls and more choppers. He certainly wasn’t hitting more pop-ups (8.6%, which is lower than his 11% career rate).

Where am I going with all of this? Really, nowhere. I just wanted to point out that you can find awesome information like this at websites like Baseball-Reference.com and Fangraphs.com.

In a perfect world, Nick Punto should reach base on 27% of his grounders, 14% of his flies, and 72% of his line drives, which would put his overall BABIP at about .325. Assuming a “normalized” strikeout rate, Punto should be a .270-.275ish hitter who draws a ton of walks.

I actually had a conversation with an MLB exec about this exact topic last offseason. We talked about Nick Swisher’s abysmal .219 batting average with the White Sox in 2008. I came to the conclusion that Swisher’s dropoff in productivity was due ENTIRELY to only 15% of his ground balls trickling through for hits. This is UNREALISTICALLY low for any player, even for a masher like Swisher who only sees 21% of grounders seep through during his career.

Of course, Swisher saw 20% of his ground balls go through for hits in 2009, which brought his batting average back to .249, where it belongs.

So did the White Sox not realize this? Why did they sell low on Swisher? Or did they simply dislike Swisher’s weird facial hair choices?

I don’t necessarily know WHY only 15% of Swisher’s ground balls went through for hits in 2008. That’s for a hitting coach to decide I guess.

But analyzing BABIP is fun. You should try it sometime.

Instead, I leave you with this…

It doesn’t matter if you are a die-hard or casual poker fan, or if you play in bar leagues or high-roller tournaments… There’s content for everyone.

http://www.mnpokermag.com/

Also, I’ll be up at Grand Casino Mille Lacs beginning Saturday for 9 straight days for the Minnesota State Poker Tour event. If you’re interested in playing, shoot me an email (Phil@MNPokerMag.com). You can qualify for the Main Event for as little as $65, with a chance to win life-changing money.

AND… finally… It sounds like Twins Weekly is coming back for a 4th season on KFAN radio. This will be my 3rd season co-hosting the show, and Justin Gaard will be on board with me. We also plan to have a Twins Weekly blog page.

We’re still hashing out some details, and we’re trying to work around my poker schedule, but I will keep  you guys posted!

Well, today I am more than happy to tip my cap to the Twins front office for a FANTASTIC offseason that culminated with the signing of second baseman Orlando Hudson. According to the Star Tribune’s Joe Christensen, Hudson’s deal is worth $5 million, which brings the Twins’ estimated 2010 payroll to roughly $96 million.

(Actually… the offseason will culminate if and when Joe Mauer signs a contract extension… but that’s bound to happen soon)

Before signing Hudson, the Twins added Jim Thome ($1.5 million), and J.J. Hardy ($5.1 million, avoided arbitration). They also re-signed Carl Pavano for $7 million, which may seem a little steep to some, but rest assured — Pavano is better than his 2009 ERA indicates.

With Hardy at shortstop and Hudson at second base, the Twins are no longer desperate for help at third base. A combination of Brendan Harris and Nick Punto will suffice, until Danny Valencia is ready to join the Big Club.

I just heard a few groans from the “we hate Nick Punto” section, but in reality, if the Twins are rolling out a lineup that consists of Hardy, Hudson, Denard Span, Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Jason Kubel, Michael Cuddyer, and occasionally Jim Thome, having Punto hit ninth is hardly cause for concern. They need Punto’s glove more than anything else — despite Hudson’s four gold gloves, Hudson has rated below average defensively every year since 2005.

By increasing the payroll by roughly $25 million, the Twins move into the upper 1/3 of Major League Baseball. Somewhere between 9th and 13th is probably accurate. And why should Twins fans expect anything different? With a new stadium, a successful, winning ball club, and plenty of public interest, the Twins don’t need to sit at the bottom of the payroll rankings.

What’s even better is how the Twins front office went after the two best-possible middle infield options this offseason (in my opinion) for their respective prices/values. Hardy’s offensive numbers will undoubtedly rebound to some degree, but his defense more than covers for his $5.1 million price tag. And Hudson’s .353 wOBA over the last three years is 6th-best among MLB second basemen, behind Chase Utley, Dustin Pedroia, Ian Kinsler, Brian Roberts and Dan Uggla (thanks, Parker).

Plus, with Hudson, the Twins not only found one of the best-hitting second basemen in baseball, they also found a perfect right-handed 2-hole option. You all know how obsessed I am with loading the top of the order with high-OBP guys. Well, Span+Hudson is plenty of OBP for Mauer, Morneau and company to feast on.

Twins fans, go freaking crazy. This is what an awesome offseason feels like.

In short, this deal is FANTASTIC.

Without diving too deep into stats, here are my bullet-point thoughts:

- Thome will likely be a part-timer/bench player who primarily faces right-handed pitchers. Is he getting old? Yes. Almost 40. Is his bat slowing down? Almost certainly. Is he as good as he was 10 years ago? Or even 3 years ago? No.

But Thome still crushes right-handed pitching. He posted an .881 OPS against righties last year vs. .743 against lefties, and throughout his career Thomas has crushed righties to a 1.043 OPS clip, vs. .763 against lefties.

- The Twins bench at the end of last season was a mess. They had guys like Alexi Casilla, Matt Tolbert and Brian Buscher pinch hitting in HUGE, high leverage situations.

Jim Thome adds what we call “pine cred” to that bench.

- Thome earned $13 million from the White Sox last year. They apparently didn’t want him back AT ALL, or he really wanted to play for the Twins… Or both.

- I highly doubt that Thome will take away much playing time from Jason Kubel. In fact, when the Twins are facing right handed pitching, it’s probably best to bench Delmon Young, who isn’t a very good hitter in the first place.

This scenario would put Kubel in left field and Thome at DH. Kubel and Delmon are both equally poor defensively. so that’s basically a wash. But the offensive platoon split against right-handed pitching should provide a huge boost for the Twins.

- Jim Thome is to the Twins what Brett Favre was to the Vikings?

OK, maybe not quite that big of an impact… But I hear Thome sings a mean rendition of “Pants on the Ground”…

- The Twins still need help at 2B and/or 3B, but with Span, Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer, Kubel, Thome and J.J. Hardy, the offense is probably more potent heading into 2010 than it’s ever been, especially against right-handed pitching.

- Many people, including myself, are slightly worried about having too many left-handed bats in the lineup. When Thome plays, the Twins will presumably insert five lefties in the batting order (Span, Mauer, Morneau, Thome, Kubel) within the first six or seven slots in the order.

This obviously isn’t a problem against righties. And because Mauer and Morneau both hit lefties pretty well, it’s not a huge deal overall, period.

- The one major problem with this signing, as well as the rumored $5 million offer to Jarrod Washburn earlier this offseason, is that the Twins have yet to address three glaring needs: 2B, 3B, and outfield defense.

But whatever. Let’s worry about that later.

KFAN.com

Heading into this game, because the Saints were clear favorites with homefield advantage and the most explosive offense in the NFL, I didn’t think it was possible for a loss of any kind to equal the utter devastation of the 1998 NFC Championship Game.

I was wrong.

11 years ago, absolutely nobody envisioned the Falcons beating the Vikings at the Metrodome. When Morten Anderson eventually booted the game-winning field goal in overtime, shock finally set in, and the scars still haven’t healed in Minnesota.

Sunday night’s game had the opposite feel. In 1998, a Vikings loss didn’t seem likely until less than two minutes remained in the 4th quarter. On Sunday night, a Vikings win didn’t seem likely until less than two minutes remained in the 4th quarter.

In fact, after Chester Taylor ripped a 14-yard run down to the Saints’ 33-yardline with 1:00 left in the 4th quarter, this game, quite frankly, was over. Despite five turnovers, with Ryan Longwell warming up on the sidelines, the game was over.

That’s why this loss was so heartbreaking and numbing. For 58 minutes, Vikings fans could watch with nervous enthusiasm and tempered expectations. But with two minutes left, the Super Bowl was within arm’s length.

But because the football gods simply aren’t ready to grant the Vikings a Super Bowl championship, for whatever reason, a series of 10 disastrous events took place. If any of the events would have gone in the Vikings favor, the outcome of the NFC Championship game likely would have been much different.

* We could obviously point to the five turnovers, the inexcusable red zone fumbles by Bernard Berrian and Adrian Peterson, and probably a few other things. But the fact is, Minnesota still had the ball in field goal range with a chance to win. There will be a time for ripping Peterson to shreds over his chronic fumbling. That time will come at a later date.

1.) Taylor’s huge run set the Vikings up with what would have been a 51-yard field goal opportunity if they didn’t gain another yard. Of course, as has become the norm throughout the second half of the season, Peterson and Taylor were each stuffed for no gain on two subsequent handoffs. The Vikings burned a timeout with 19 seconds left.

The Saints obviously knew the Vikings were going to run the ball, but in a game where Minnesota ran for 165 yards, it would have been helpful — if not dagger-like — to punch the ball inside the 30-yardline.

If the Vikings could have found a way to inch inside the 30-yardline, the following events were much less likely to occur.

2.) Coming out of the timeout, facing 3rd-and-10 from the Saints 33-yardline, the Vikings inexplicably wound up with 12 men in the huddle.

After the game, Brad Childress said fullback Naufahu Tahi was the extra man in the huddle. Whether that was a coaching mistake or a player brain fart, who knows. But Favre realized there were 12 men in the huddle and he attempted to call a timeout, which also would have been illegal, because the Vikings already burned a timeout before the play. Teams are not permitted to call back-to-back timeouts.

The 5-yard penalty pushed the Vikings back to the 38-yardline, which would have been a 56-yard field goal. Longwell’s season long is 52, and 56 is probably the back end of his range, so the Vikings found themselves needing to gain a few more yards.

If the Vikings don’t inexplicably screw up the huddle situation, a 51-yard field goal would have been perfectly acceptable as a worst-case scenario.

3.) Childress said he would have run the ball from the 33-yardline, but after the penalty (which pushed a potential 51-yard field goal attempt back to a 56-yard attempt) Childress and company decided to pass. Many fans will no doubt rip Childress’ decision to throw the ball in this spot, but after watching the Saints stuff the two previous rushing attempts — and knowing the Vikings run for more no-gains than almost any team in football — it’s hard to blame him for putting the ball in Favre’s hands at that point. The Vikings needed to gain a few yards, and running the ball wasn’t going to accomplish that task.

According to Childress, the play was a rollout designed for Bernard Berrian. When Berrian went in motion, the Saints recognized something, checked to a different defense, and covered appropriately. This caused Favre to throw late across his body to Sidney Rice, and Tracy Porter cut in front for the interception.

Longwell might be the best kicker in the NFL, and he didn’t even get a shot.

If not for the 12 men in the huddle penalty, the Vikings settle for a 51-yard field goal at worst.

If Favre would have simply run the ball instead of throwing into traffic, he probably had room to gain three or four yards.

And if Favre would have just thrown the ball away, Longwell would have had a chance to hit a 56-yard field goal with roughly 10 seconds remaining.

4.) At the start of overtime, Steve Hutchinson called heads. The coin landed tails.

If Hutch knew that “tails never fails,” the Vikings win the toss.

5.) With the Vikings likely still dazed from how regulation ended, Pierre Thomas ripped off a big kick return to the Saints’ 39-yardline. Cedric Griffin was injured on the play and had to be helped off the field. Rookie Asher Allen, who rarely plays, was thrust into action.

Three plays later, after two unsuccessful rushing attempts, Drew Brees dropped back and fired incomplete over the middle on third down to Marques Colston. Of course, Asher was called for defensive holding, giving the Saints an automatic first down.

If Griffin doesn’t come up lame on the kickoff, Asher doesn’t see the field. There are no guarantees that Griffin would have covered the play differently, or that the defensive alignment would have remained the same. But Asher is the culprit here, regardless.

6.) After an incomplete pass on first down, Brees dropped back again on second down, firing a dart over the middle toward Colston. The ball ping ponged off Colston and two Vikings defenders before resting in the hands of Tyrell Johnson. Unfortunately, Johnson was unable to corral the interception, and the ball fell harmlessly to the Superdome turf.

On the Falcons’ final drive of the ’98 NFC Championship Game, Robert Griffith had two golden opportunities to intercept Chris Chandler, and he dropped the ball both times. It was hard to avoid flashbacks when Johnson dropped this one.

If Johnson intercepts that pass, assuming he’s tackled on the spot, the Vikings regain possession near their own 20-yardline.

7.) A few plays later, on 4th-and-1 from the Vikings 43-yardline, Pierre Thomas dove over the pile, only to be met by Chad Greenway, who jarred the ball loose for a moment. The ball originally broke the first down plane, but Greenway’s hit pushed Thomas backwards and jarred the ball loose. Referee Pete Morelli went into the booth for a review, and he ruled (presumably) that because Thomas didn’t completely lose possession (he pinned the loose ball to his leg at the last second), the Saints earned a first down via forward progress.

If Thomas doesn’t regain possession at the last second, the Vikings turn the Saints over on downs near midfield, 20 yards from Longwell’s field goal range.

8.) On the next play, with the Saints needing roughly eight yards to inch into realistic field goal range, Brees lobbed a pass well over the head of tight end David Thomas, who was battling with Ben Leber. Leber was flagged for pass interference, even though the ball was completely uncatchable. This questionable call gave the Saints a first down at the Vikings’ 29-yardline.

If the refs correctly rule Brees’ pass uncatchable, the Saints face 2nd-and-10 from the Vikings’ 41-yardline, still out of field goal range.

9.) After stuffing Reggie Bush for a 5-yard loss to back the Saints up to the 34-yardline, Brees fired over the middle to Robert Meachem, who bobbled the ball on his way to the ground, but somehow found a way to pin it to his leg. Multiple replays showed inconclusive evidence. Morelli went under the curtain once again, but could not overturn the call.

If Meachem doesn’t find a way to pin the ball to his leg at the last second (much like Pierre Thomas a few plays earlier), the Saints face 3rd-and-15 from the outskirts of field goal range. Or, if the booth review showed more conclusive evidence of the ground helping Meachem retain possession… Instead, they faced 3rd-and-3 from the Vikings’ 22.

10.) Of course, we all know what happened next. Garrett Hartley split the uprights with a 40-yard field goal, sending the Saints to their first ever Super Bowl.

If Favre doesn’t sign with the Vikings in August, Hartley doesn’t make that kick. That’s because the Vikings never would have made it to the NFC Championship Game without Favre.

After the game, Favre looked and sounded completely dejected.

“I just wonder if I could hold up, especially after a day like today,” Favre said. “Physically and mentally. That was pretty draining.”

When asked if he thought this was a successful season, Favre said yes.

“I can’t print anything for you guys, but I’m going out on top one way or the other.”

Sunday’s loss will go down in Minnesota sports history as one of the absolute most devastating, hands down. What makes it sting more is the fact that the Saints didn’t actually beat the Vikings. The Vikings beat the Vikings.

After the game, Favre spent five minutes crying inside the Vikings locker room, and he declined a post-game interview with Fox. Jay Glazer reports that Vikings players believe Favre will retire, and many national pundits (and, predictably, Packer fans) will point to the fact that Brett Favre led his team and his new fan base to the brink of elation only to stick a dagger in their hearts, as expected.

Regardless, Vikings fans will pat Favre on the back, tell him thanks for the great ride, and welcome him back with open arms in 2010, if he so chooses.

Exactly 12 hours before kickoff on Sunday, ESPN 2 showed a rerun of the 1998 NFC Championship game between the Vikings and Falcons. Funny, no matter how many times you watch it, the outcome never changes.

Many comparisons have been made this season between the 1998 Vikings and the 2009 Vikings, mostly because 1998 was the last time people in Minnesota truly believed this football team had a realistic shot to win the Super Bowl (the 41-0 NFC Championship game after the 2000 season hardly qualifies).

But contrary to what many Vikings fans believe, the parallels between the ‘98 team and the ‘09 team are few and far between, most notably the fact that Dennis Green’s squad essentially rolled through the entire season without a humbling experience, sans one blip at Tampa Bay. The ’09 squad was humbled throughout the entire month of December, and they came into Sunday’s match-up with Dallas as underdogs in the eyes of the national media.

The biggest problem with the 1998 Vikings is that they had no concept of what it was like to lose a football game, and when things started snowballing in the wrong direction against Atlanta, they curled up in the fetal position. Their aura of invincibility eventually served as a downfall.

It’s too early to say whether the 2009 team will write a different story than the 1998 team. But after watching the Vikings thoroughly dismantle the hottest team in the NFC, 34-3, it’s obvious Brad Childress’ bunch has put its December struggles in the rear view mirror.

And the best part? They’re almost certain to be underdogs once again in New Orleans next weekend for the NFC Championship game.

Maybe the Saints will play the role of the 1998 Vikings.

Vikings defense, not Cowboys’, walks the walk

Heading into Sunday, the Cowboys defense had allowed only 31 points over its last four games, while tallying 16 sacks. Two of those games were shutouts, and three of those games came against the Saints and the Eagles.

It’s understandable why most people thought tenacious pass rushers Anthony Spencer, DeMarcus Ware and Jay Ratliff would give the Vikings fits. Instead, it was Jared Allen, Kevin Williams, Pat Williams, Jimmy Kennedy, and Brian Robison who feasted. Oh, and Ray Edwards, who had the game of his life.

“I just went out there and read my keys like my coach (Karl Dunbar) taught me,” Edwards said. “I just went out there and played my butt of for him and continued to work. God willing, I’ll be back next week and I’ll be 100%.

“They were saying all week how our DBs weren’t going to match with their receivers, but they did a good job. They gave us enough time to get at them up front.”

Before exiting with a right knee injury in the second half, Edwards tallied three sacks, a forced fumble, and multiple quarterback hurries. Tony Romo ran around the backfield like a wounded cat for three hours. In fact, Romo dropped back to pass 40 times and was hit 16 times.

The Vikings pass rush has certainly made quarterbacks sweat this season (see: Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, etc.), but does Sunday’s flustering of Romo stand at the top of the list?

“I think so,” said Ben Leber, who was the beneficiary of a Romo ill-advised interception in the second half. “And for the most part, we blitzed when we had to, but a lot of those times the D-line was just running their game. We knew their big guys really couldn’t handle movement that well. So those guys just did a great job of getting a four-man rush and making it a lot easier for us on the backend.”

The Cowboys gained 118 yards in the first quarter, essentially moving the ball at will. If not for Ray Edwards coming up with two huge sacks and a forced fumble, the Vikings may have trailed early instead of jumping out to a 7-0 lead.

But coming away with zero points in the first quarter seemed to frustrate the Cowboys. At one point in the opening period, when facing 4th-and-1 from the Vikings 30-yardline — and with Romo and company dissecting the Vikings defense — Cowboys head coach Wade Phillips elected to attempt a 48-yard field goal with embattled kicker Shaun Suisham, who most people may remember as the Redskins kicker who missed a 23-yard field goal earlier in the season that would have clinched a win over New Orleans.

Of course, Suisham missed the 48-yarder. It seemed logical that making a 48-yard field goal was a much more difficult task than gaining one yard at the time. As it was, Dallas missed its window to jump out in front and gained only 130 yards the rest of the game.

From that point on, the Vikings defense overwhelmed America’s Team. Romo was sacked six times. He also threw an interception and fumbled three times, losing two of them.

“We had our game plan ready,” Pat Williams said. “We just figured we’d come out and smash them and outwork them. We smashed them and outworked them.

“Put the Saints on up there. We’re going to ride down low, right under the radar at the bottom.”

Quiet confidence led to blowout

With everyone around them talking about the tenacity of the Cowboys defense and the various match-up advantages Dallas had heading into Sunday, Vikings players remained tight-lipped in the locker room all week long. They bit their tongues and sat with quiet confidence.

“I know that the conversations were a lot about if our tackles were going to be able to hold up against the outside linebackers,” Childress said. “Our deal was this; we got a good football team. I told them that all year long. I heard all that nonsense and all the hype about the Dallas Cowboys coming to town, the hottest team in the playoffs. I asked my team early in the week to choke it back and shut up. We will play the game when we get here on Sunday. The game is always won on the football field.

“I knew they would play their tail off and be able to dispel that myth of (who) was coming to town.”

Not a bad strategy, and the Vikings may want to implement a similar plan this week. After New Orleans dismantled Arizona, they will likely be clear favorites.

And speaking of the offensive tackles, with the exception of DeMarcus Ware coming untouched for a sack on the first play of the game (put that one on Chester Taylor), Bryant McKinnie and Phil Loadholt held their own in pass protection.

“I feel like everybody just put in a lot of work,” McKinnie said. “Plays were being executed. As hard as everybody worked all week long, I’m not surprised (at the margin of victory). But then again, if you listened to the media then you would be surprised.”

Dallas sacked Favre four times on Sunday, but Favre completed 15-of-24 passes for 234 yards and four touchdowns, and it rarely seemed as if he was uncomfortable in the pocket.

“We did a lot of play action,” McKinnie said. “We set up the run a little bit, and it enabled us to do play action, bring some draws. They kind of weren’t sure. They didn’t get a chance to pin their ears back like I’ve seen them do against other teams, because they usually get up first, have a lead, and then other teams are playing catch up and passing the ball a lot. That allows them to just rush the passer, but we mixed it up.”

Credit Childress and offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell with putting together a fantastic offensive game plan. The running game, statistically, was not aesthetically pleasing; 26 rushes and 63 yards for Peterson, and 33 rushes for 109 yards as a team.

But the presentation was fantastic. The Vikings used a series of fake reverses and fake handoffs to Peterson and Percy Harvin to keep Dallas off-balance. Later on, Favre actually handed the ball to Harvin in some of those same scenarios, and he ran three times for 23 yards.

There was a growing sense that Minnesota’s offense simply had too many weapons in too many places, and the Cowboys defense had trouble dictating pace.

“It probably wasn’t the prettiest running game,” Steve Hutchinson said, “but four or five yards a pop when we had to get it to keep the chains moving, to keep their defense off-balance, and then we were able to convert and move the chains with the short passing game and take our shots when we had to… That’s probably went as well as we could have planned.”

Sidney Rice with another coming out party

If the world was unfamiliar with Sidney Rice before Sunday, his 141-yard, three touchdown performance (three receiving touchdowns ties an NFL playoff record) pushed him one step closer to being a household name.

As recently as January of 2009, Rice was a beleaguered, banged-up, underachieving, former second round draft who showed very few signs of having a breakout season in 2010. At best, in the eyes of most who follow the Vikings closely, if Rice could stay healthy, he may have been in line for a solid 2010 campaign.

But 1,300 yards, eight touchdowns and a Pro Bowl berth? What?

“I said that from day one that Sidney is that type of player,” Brett Favre said. “I hate to compare him or put him in categories, because I think he is in a category by himself. There are faster guys, there are taller guys, there are quicker guys, but the thing about Sidney — and I’ve played with guys like him as far as the work ethic — is he wants to be good. It matters to him.”

Rice said after the game that the game plan didn’t dictate Favre throwing deep. He said Dallas’ safeties do a fantastic job of rolling coverages and limiting home runs. Even on the two long touchdowns to Rice — a 47-yarder in the first quarter and a 45-yarder in the third quarter — safety Gerald Sensabaugh and cornerback Mike Jenkins provided very good coverage. Rice just flat out made big plays, like he has all season.

“I feel like it’s been a real good season for me so far,” Rice said. “And I definitely feel like we won’t be finishing anytime soon. A lot of it has to do with the guys around me. None of it would be possible without those guys around me.”