With Joe Nathan tearing his UCL and likely headed for Tommy John surgery, a Twins season that once looked as promising as any over the last two decades now appears to be in limbo.
Nathan is among the top three closers in baseball over the last five years (Mariano Rivera, Jonathan Papelbon), and replacing him will be a difficult task for Ron Gardenhire.
Of course, I would argue that the closer role is the most ridiculous, meaningless, and over-valued position in all of sports, but most Major League Baseball teams are still caught up in the baseball cultural pressure to pay one person $10 million per season to hold a 3-run lead.
Ideally, the best bullpen strategy would be to have a core group of anywhere between two and four relief pitchers (at least one lefty) who can mix and match, depending on lefty/righty and other match-up factors, from the 7th inning on.
In fact, there are numerous times throughout the season where a manager will summon an inferior relief pitcher (like Bobby Keppel) in a crucial situation in the 7th or 8th inning, only to see the game implode. But because baseball culture says to ONLY bring closers in for the 9th inning, it’s sacrilege to do anything different.
For more on this, Joe Sheehan wrote an amazing article three years ago that details a late-inning situation between the Indians and Tigers (if this is subscription-based, I apologize).
Anyhow, because Ron Gardenhire is highly unlikely to deviate from the baseball cultural norm, we should probably start looking at the Twins’ new closer candidates.
I’m sure over the next few weeks you’ll hear baseball talking heads discuss how “mental toughness” is the most important factor when it comes to closing. Mental toughness is obviously important if you are a closer, but mental toughness is also critical in any sport at any position that requires a player to operate under pressure.
The problem is that measuring mental toughness is almost impossible. For instance, how “mentally tough” is Brad Lidge? He can be the best closer in baseball one year, then completely melt down the next. What about Jonathan Papelbon? Regarded as one of the best closers in baseball over the last three years, but he blew a huge save in the playoffs last year.
The first step to picking out a closer is to find a guy whose skillset matches that of previously successful closers. THEN we’ll worry about mental toughness after that.
James Bond might be the most mentally tough fictional person in the world, but I doubt he can blow a fastball by Kevin Youkilis with runners in scoring position…
Let’s take a peak:
Traits of top closers, historically:
1.) Ability to limit home runs. Generally, if a relief pitcher is allowing more than .8 home runs per 9 innings, he’s much more likely to blow saves. End of story. There are almost no exceptions to this rule.
2.) Strikeout-to-walk ratio. Mariano Rivera is the king of K/BB ratio (8:1 over the last two years, which is ridiculous). Anything over 2.5:1 is pretty solid, generally speaking. Joe Nathan was almost always over 4:1.
3.) High K totals. Most of the top closers in baseball also strike out at least 8 or 9 batters per nine innings. Of course, there are some exceptions, although some would argue Ryan Franklin’s 2009 season was somewhat “fluky.” When pitching in “high leverage” situations, where even one extra base runner can drastically alter the result of a one or two-run game in the 9th inning, having a closer that avoids contact is essential.
4.) There are other isolated traits, such as pitchers who induce a ton of ground balls, but quite frankly, I don’t want my closer pitching to contact. That opens too many doors for bad luck to creep in. I want my closer to strike people out.
Some folks might ask about trading for somebody outside the organization, but the Twins are highly unlikely to add salary.
So who is the best in-house option for the Twins? Let’s break it down.
* First of all, knowing Gardenhire, we can eliminate Anthony Slama, Rob Delaney, Loek Van Mil, and any other young pitcher who may be worth considering. Gardy is grizzled. He wants “experience.”
Matt Guerrier? Guerrier had an awesome 2009 season, posting a 2.36 ERA and his lowest walk rate (1.89 BB/9) ever. But Guerrier doesn’t tally very many strikeouts (never more than 6.96 per 9 innings), and he historically allows WAY too many HRs to be a closer (22 over the last two years, in fewer than 150 innings).
Jesse Crain? Talk about an enigma. Crain was dubbed as the closer-in-waiting back in 2004-2005… But we’re still waiting… Crain was actually pretty solid down the stretch last year, but his control is WAY too sporadic, and he still doesn’t strike out enough batters for my taste to be an adequate closer. Crain does a nice job limiting home runs (only 13 allowed since 2006), but I don’t see him as a good fit to close.
Pat Neshek? Maybe if this was 2007… But Neshek is coming off serious surgery of his own. Let’s give him a couple months before thrusting him into the closer role. Unless he goes lights out throughout the spring… Then maybe.
Jose Mijares? Without a doubt, one of the most talented relievers in the organization. He has a track record of high strikeout numbers, and his control certainly isn’t terrible. And he’s likely to improve entering his second full season. But there are two problems with making Mijares the new closer. 1.) He’s prone to giving up home runs, and this stems from his early minor league days as well. 2.) He’s projected as the only lefty in the Twins bullpen. If that’s the case, it wouldn’t make sense to save him for the 9th inning. As the only lefty, Mijares is much more valuable as a “roamer” between the 6th and 9th innings.
Jon Rauch? Rauch actually closed for the Nationals in 2008, saving 18 games. He has “experience,” which helps his case with Gardy, and his peripheral numbers have been pretty solid over the last few years — good control (fewer than 3 BB/9 over the last three years), and decent K numbers, but not spectacular (anywhere between 6.3 and 8.5 K/9). Unfortunately, Rauch can definitely fall victim to the long ball from time to time, although not nearly as often as Guerrier.
Francisco Liriano? Fits the bill, but would much rather see him in the starting rotation.
Others? Clay Condrey? Lowest strikeout totals of any reliever in baseball over the last two years, but he induces a ton of ground balls. Not a terrible option, especially with a solid infield defense. Glen Perkins? May actually land a roster spot with Nathan out, but still way too many question marks with injury and productivity to be considered as a closer. Brian Duensing, Anthony Swarzak, Jeff Manship? Highly unlikely. Although one of these guys may land a bullpen role as a result of the open roster spot.
My rankings, based on the above tidbits and “gut” feeling, I guess:
1.) Jon Rauch
2.) Jose Mijares
3.) Pat Neshek
4.) Matt Guerrier
5.) Jesse Crain
6.) Slama/Delaney/etc… Somebody young and new.
J.J. Hardy emerged as one of Major League Baseball’s top-hitting middle infielders from 2007 to 2008 when he hit .280/.333/.470 with 50 home runs over the two seasons. Hardy was also rated as one of the top defensive shortstops in baseball over that period.
