I just spent the better part of two weeks in casino/poker-land up at Grand Casino Mille Lacs for the Minnesota State Poker Tour event, but with baseball season quickly approaching, I’m now in the process of dusting off the old sabermetric thinking cap.
Sort of.
As I mentioned a few months ago, I will no longer be doing player projections, nor will I be offering ridiculously in-depth sabermetric articles like I did in the past. It’s simply too time consuming.
But for everyone looking to gain an edge in their fantasy baseball leagues, or for people just looking for more interesting and accurate ways of predicting how players will perform, let me point you in the right direction.
BABIP. And BABIP’s offspring, LDBABIP, GBBABIP, and FBBABIP. (and BABIP’s step-son, BuntBABIP).
BABIP is “Batting Average on Balls In Play,” which is basically defined as “any batted ball.” LD, GB and FB are line drives, ground balls, and fly balls.
By now, the majority of MLB front offices pay close attention to stats like BABIP and its effects on offensive numbers (and in a pitcher’s case, how “lucky” or “unlucky” he is).
Why is BABIP important? Because it weeds out strikeouts and walks, which are both hitter skillsets that affect on base percentage and batting average, and tells you how often a hitter successfully reaches base when he makes contact. It also helps us pinpoint exactly what may have gone right or wrong for any particular hitter.
Let’s use Nick Punto as an example. Punto’s batting average and overall value as a hitter seem to fluctuate every other year. He was solid in 2006, terrible in 2007, solid in 2008, terrible in 2009, etc. Some people might suggest Punto is “due” in 2010, based on his “odd year/even year” track record. This is obviously laughable. His odd/even year pattern is a complete fluke.
A hitter of Punto’s skillset — slap-type hitter with speed and very little warning-track power — will historically see 27-29% of his ground balls go through for base hits, 13-16% of his fly balls drop for hits, and 69-73% of his line drives fall for hits.
In 2006, which was Punto’s breakout year offensively (.290 batting average), he saw 28% of his ground balls go for hits, 18% of his flies drop for hits, and 71% of his line drives drop in. His overall BABIP was .332, which is above league average.
In 2007, only 23% of Punto’s ground balls seeped through, along with 14% of his flies and 58% of his line drives. He finished the season with a .210 batting average.
Punto’s 2008 BABIP numbers were nearly identical to his 2006 numbers, and his average rose to .284 as a result.
In 2009, Punto’s batting average dropped back down to .228, so it comes as no surprise that only 20% of his ground balls went through for hits, along with 11% of his flies. 78% of his line drives fell in, which is actually quite fortunate, but not enough to make up for his low GBBABIP and FBBABIPs.
Does this all make sense? BABIP, walk rate, and strikeout rate are all connected on a string to form on base percentage.
In 2009, Nick Punto drew more walks (14%) and had more line drives fall in for hits (78%) than at any point in his entire career! This should have translated to a fantastic (for Punto, anyways) offensive season, but it didn’t.
So why did Punto have such a hard time buying base hits on ground balls and fly balls compared to league average and compared to his track record? To be honest, I really have no idea. Maybe he was hitting fewer HARD ground balls and more choppers. He certainly wasn’t hitting more pop-ups (8.6%, which is lower than his 11% career rate).
Where am I going with all of this? Really, nowhere. I just wanted to point out that you can find awesome information like this at websites like Baseball-Reference.com and Fangraphs.com.
In a perfect world, Nick Punto should reach base on 27% of his grounders, 14% of his flies, and 72% of his line drives, which would put his overall BABIP at about .325. Assuming a “normalized” strikeout rate, Punto should be a .270-.275ish hitter who draws a ton of walks.
I actually had a conversation with an MLB exec about this exact topic last offseason. We talked about Nick Swisher’s abysmal .219 batting average with the White Sox in 2008. I came to the conclusion that Swisher’s dropoff in productivity was due ENTIRELY to only 15% of his ground balls trickling through for hits. This is UNREALISTICALLY low for any player, even for a masher like Swisher who only sees 21% of grounders seep through during his career.
Of course, Swisher saw 20% of his ground balls go through for hits in 2009, which brought his batting average back to .249, where it belongs.
So did the White Sox not realize this? Why did they sell low on Swisher? Or did they simply dislike Swisher’s weird facial hair choices?
I don’t necessarily know WHY only 15% of Swisher’s ground balls went through for hits in 2008. That’s for a hitting coach to decide I guess.
But analyzing BABIP is fun. You should try it sometime.
