I’m such a fraud.

I wrote the Twins off as playoff contenders at some point in late-July, but after they defeated the Tigers 3-0 on Friday night it looks like I’ll at least have to start nibbling on my words. And, of course, I made my bandwagon-esque return to the Metrodome press box tonight as well…

Now, before we begin praising the Twins for how gutty they are, and how they never quit, etc., it’s important to note they play in what could possibly be one of the weakest divisions in baseball over the last 10 years. If you put their 75-72 record in any other division (keeping in mind other divisions also would have provided more difficult competition than Cleveland, Chicago and Kansas City), the closest the Twins would be to first place is 10 back in the loss column behind St. Louis.

It’s like when a fat dude is on a treadmill. He’s out of shape and tired, about to keel over, but he pulls the red safety pin and the tread slows down to help him keep pace.

Regardless of the circumstances, and regardless of how they arrived where they are, the Twins are only three games behind Detroit with six more head-to-head matchups. Baseball Prospectus now gives the Twins greater than a 20% chance to make the playoffs.

The dream is still alive!

I certainly haven’t been the lead vocalist from the optimism choir, but if the Twins do somehow win this division (no less of a miracle than the late season charge of 2006), ANYTHING can happen in the playoffs. Short series, small sample sizes, and so on… Bats can heat up, pitchers like Duensing can start mowing down hitters, and opposition can go cold.

I do worry that the Twins will feel a false sense of security for 2010 because of this late-season pennant chase. Hopefully they can look objectively at where they stand as an organization.

Either way, it’s fun to watch meaningful baseball in September.