Rumors are flying that Billy Smith and company are in talks with Billy Beane’s A’s to bring SS Orlando Cabrera to town. I have extremely mixed, and mostly negative feelings about this, for multiple reasons.
Here are some scatter-brained thoughts on The OC:
- Orlando Cabrera is one of the most overrated players, offensively, of the past 5-10 years. Only twice since 2003 has he posted a wOBA over .316, and he has consistently provided less than league average production with the bat in terms of “runs created” (or wRAA, as I like to use).
- Some of you may ask, how is he overrated offensively? And why are you trying to use made-up stats like wOBA to trick us? Well, wOBA is currently the best measurement of offensive performance because it properly weights OBP and SLG (better than OPS). It’s as close as we have to a “magical” all-encompassing offensive stat. And the reason why OC produces low wOBAs every year is because he doesn’t hit for much power, and he doesn’t really draw many walks. He’s not Delmon Young or anything, but he certainly isn’t the ideal top-of-the-order candidate.
- OC’s value is at its highest when he’s covering a lot of ground on defense, which is something he’s struggled mightily with this season (possibly because he’s like 34 going on 35). OC’s UZR per 150 is -9.3 this year, which is by far his worst season defensively since UZR began measuring performance in 2002. He’s normally above average. Could this simply be a short-term lapse? Or is he losing range faster than Derek Jeter? A little birdie says OC has trouble fielding anything to his right….
- OC signed a one-year deal with Oakland during the offseason, and he has roughly $1.5 million left on that contract in 2009. Not a steep price. HOWEVER… OC has a clause in that contract that says the team that owns his rights at the end of the season CANNOT offer him arbitration if he is a Type A free agent. As of this weekend, according to the Elias Sports Bureau, OC is Type A. This is important. If the Twins acquired OC, in order to be compensated with a first round pick after the season when OC inevitably signs with a new team (like Torii Hunter), the Twins would have to offer him arbitration first. Since his contract doesn’t allow that, the Twins would get nothing in return when OC walks.
- The Twins have to assume OC will be a Type A free agent by season’s end, which means they really shouldn’t give up anything other than a low-level minor leaguer. Somebody without much upside. If they had a chance to gain a first round pick after OC’s departure, the price would be much steeper.
- OC isn’t an upgrade over Brendan Harris in my opinion. But for the sake of change, OCÂ may provide a sparkplug, which is something this team is desperate for.
- OC gives Gardy another excuse to NOT bat Joe Mauer second.
- Freddy Sanchez is a much more appealing option, and I have a hard time believing the Pirates wouldn’t take Casilla, Swarzak and something else. That said, if the Twins trade Swarzak, who steps into this trainwreck rotation? That’s why this whole scenario is such a mess…
- I know OC is currently hitting the crap out of the ball… A .400+ batting average over his last X amount of games. Whatever. He’s been in the league since 1997, and it would be stupid to put any stock into what he’s done over the last few weeks. The Twins know what they’re getting. OC’s “true” talent level is what it is. And it’s not that great.
- All in all, if the Twins can acquire OC for next to nothing, I’m fine with it. But don’t expect him to be much of an upgrade over Brendan Harris.