OK, let me start by saying I’m happy the Twins took two out of three from the Rangers. Well done. Keep winning series and you’ll probably win the division.
That said, I don’t think the Twins will win enough series over the next three months if they don’t stop banging their heads against the same walls.
Those heads, and those walls, refer to Alexi Casilla, R.A. Dickey, and the general tendency of the Twins’ front office to play it safe, rather than make an impactful move.
Let’s start with the move the Twins did make on Sunday — signing 2B Mark Grudzielanek to a minor league contract. Grudzielanek, 39, hasn’t played all year, but based on his track record in Kansas City the last three years, he probably still has gas left in the tank.
Since 2003, Grudzielanek has posted wOBAs of .347, .339, .321, .318, .336, and .329 — all right around league average, and all certainly above the wOBA of a league-average second baseman.
He’s also shown above average range, even at his advanced age. So, if Grudzielanek is “the answer” at second base for the Twins down the stretch (and we’ll find out when he’s called up in a week or two), I wouldn’t be devastated.
Would I rather have Freddy Sanchez? Absolutely. And I have a hard time believing the Pirates wouldn’t go for a Casilla/Swarzak-type package.
I’ll be more upset if the Twins don’t trade for an impactful relief pitcher. And I’d put money on that not happening. I hope I’m wrong.
Speaking of Casilla… The Twins are either showcasing him as trade bait, or they are completely delusional.
Why delusional?
Because upon Casilla’s most recent call-up (are we to double digits yet?), he was immediately plugged into the #2 hole. Outside of a hot streak in May of 2008, what has Casilla done to earn such 2-hole security? And why does Ron Gardenhire REFUSE to simply move Mauer back into the 2-hole?
You could argue the Twins’ most productive offensive stretch (without looking) came when Span, Mauer, and Morneau hit at the top of the order. I’m not a huge fan of small sample sizes, so a three-week offensive splurge does nothing to influence me.
What DOES influence me, however, is logic. And logic says your number 1 and 2 hitters are table-setters for the middle of the order. I’m not sure where some of these old school guys learned how to pencil a lineup card, but having a power-less slap hitter who barely posts an OPS over .600 is NOT a table setter.
Those are called WASTED OUTS.
I know he’s still young, but at his best, Alexi Casilla is a league-average second baseman. And it’s been over a year, and multiple trips to AAA, since he’s played at his best.
The most annoying part is what Bill Smith told the Star Tribune after the Grudzielanek acquisition… that the Twins still believe Casilla can take the second base job and run with it. But even if he does take it and run, will he perform above the level of a league-average second baseman?
Unlikely. And that makes him expendable. So please, quickly trade him to a team like the Pirates before he’s too old to have “upside”.
That brings me to R.A. Dickey, and more mismanagement of the bullpen.
What would you say to me if I told you Pitcher ‘A’ posted ERAs over 5.00 and 6.00 in every season since 2003? Does that sound like somebody you’d want on your team?
Then, what if I told you Pitcher ‘A’ somehow had a sub-3.30 ERA heading into the middle of July of 2009? How comfortable would you feel, based on that pitcher’s track record, that he’d continue to avoid trainwrecking?
Baseball is about playing the percentages and using historical information to predict the future as accurately as possible. The teams that do so — whether in the middle of the game, in the front office, in the scouting department, in the statistical analysis department — will have a better chance to succeed.
The Twins signed Dickey to a minor league contract heading into spring training. OK, cool. Whatever. The problem? He posted a sub-3.00 ERA in March, and the Twins didn’t have the heart to tell him his track record suggested he was a fluke.
Of course, Dickey continued his streak into the season out of the bullpen, posting a sub-3.30 ERA into the All-Star break.
This is what we call “HOLY CRAP DICKY HAS A 3.30 ERA, WE ARE SO LUCKY, LET’S NOT MESS THIS UP”.
Gardenhire has instead chosen to test the waters even further. Dickey’s role was, and should always be, expendable mop-up man. But more and more over the past few weeks, Dickey has found himself pitching in critical late-game situations.
Sunday night was no exception. With the winning run on third base in the bottom of the 12th inning — and with Joe Nathan inexplicably still sitting in the bullpen — Dickey came on and promptly, but not unexpectedly, served up a game-winning walk-off homer to Ian Kinsler.
That’s right. With one of the best hitters in baseball (albeit slumping a bit) coming to the plate, the Twins chose to leave their best relief pitcher in the bullpen in favor of a guy who has essentially luckboxed his way through the first half of the season.
This is as midguided as it gets.
The old school baseball minds will say, “but it wasn’t a save situation, so they couldn’t bring Nathan in.”
B.S.
Saves are a joke. High leverage situations are not a joke. High leverage situations — the point(s) in a game where the current at bat, or situation, could alter the outcome — are as real as it gets. Saving your best relief pitcher for a future situation that may not even arise is pure insanity.
If “saves” didn’t exsist — if there was no such thing as a “save” — who would you have brought into the game to face Kinsler in that spot?
Joe Nathan.
God, I’m so worked up right now.
I love the Twins, but they just frustrate me sometimes.