July, 2009

...now browsing by month

 

Deadline Thoughts: Don’t rush to pat Twins on back

Friday, July 31st, 2009

Because I’ve been Twittering, writing, gathering audio and running around tirelessly all day at Vikings training camp, I’ll avoid taking up much space in this spot tonight.

After all, why should I put forth my full effort to blog on trade deadline day when the Twins can’t put forth their full effort to improve the team?

Yes, the Twins traded for SS Orlando Cabrera this afternoon –  a man they seemingly had their eye on for a couple weeks. As I’ve mentioned before on this site, and on Twins Weekly, Cabrera does not provide much of an upgrade over Brendan Harris, although Fangraphs makes the case that he could be worth an extra half-win or so (in terms of win shares… not literal “wins”).

That’s fine. I like the trade, because the Twins gave up a mid-level prospect (SS Tyler Ladendorf) and received $500,000 back as well. This is a minimal price to pay for a guy who is likely to walk without compensation after the year. Not to mention, the big boys in the clubhouse will view the move as an attempt at “winning now”, justifiably so, sort of.

If nothing else, Cabrera should hopefully light a spark for the Twins. Whether that spark leads to improved team performance remains to be seen. Hopefully he plays better defense than he has in Oakland this year, and hopefully he can find his way on base at a respectable rate. Let’s play.

Sounds like a happy ending to the trade deadline, right?

Wrong.

Unfortunately, middle infield and “lighting a spark” weren’t and aren’t the only Twins needs. In fact, you could argue the most glaring hole to fill has not been addressed for the better part of two years.

The bullpen.

Adding Cabrera is fine. But once again, he’s not a meaningful upgrade over Brendan Harris. Adding Cabrera without adding bullpen help is like throwing away two cards in 5-card poker and drawing only one in return.

And now that the starting rotation is depleted, the bullpen’s performance is magnified even more.

The team has not improved enough. The bullpen has been a problem for two years, and the Twins have failed to address it. Instead of acquiring meaningful upgrades at reasonable prices (see: Jeremy Affeldt, Cla Meredith, George Sherrill), they choose to roll the dice with R.A. Dickey, Sean Henn, Eddie Guardado, Kevin Mulvey, Phil Humber, Bobby Keppel, a returning Jesse Crain, etc.

And they continue to get burned (see: Friday night vs. Anaheim).

(And don’t give me the “other teams asked for too much in return” argument. I have a strong feeling the Twins have an over-inflated opinion of their current farm system, which leads them to believe teams are asking for too much. This is just my opinion. Trading for an impact bullpen pitcher requires giving up something in return. But because these impact relievers are pitching in high leverage, game-altering situations, the price is worth it for a guy like Wuertz, Sherrill, etc.)

I’m not a huge fan of Orlando Cabrera, but I can praise the Twins for identifying something they wanted and trading for it. What I cannot do, however, is pat the Twins on the back at this trade deadline. They failed to upgrade the area that needed help the most — and I say this based on foresight.

I hope I’m wrong on all of this. I hope OC sparks the Twins. I hope Keppel, Dickey and Crain are lights out down the stretch. And I hope the Twins win the division and head to the playoffs. They still might, because of the weak division and weak remaining schedule.

But inexplicably refusing to trade for a pitcher may be the ultimate downfall in this 2009 season.

MN Poker Mag and Twins Fodder

Wednesday, July 29th, 2009

First of all, we are now offering subscriptions to Minnesota Poker Magazine. $24 for a full year (12 issues). Just got off the phone with the guy who will be on our September cover… Fantastic interview. 24 years old, already a multi-millionaire.

This Brett Favre stuff has thrown my schedule for a loop in the days leading up to training camp. I was hoping to take in a few Twins games at the dome and play a ton of online poker before cutting off all communication while in Mankato, but Favre-a-palooza has kept that from happening. Thanks, Brett.

Speaking of the Twins, I know I’ve been super harsh on the front office lately for not being proactive. It’s obviously not personal. The guys I’ve had a chance to talk to in that front office are all good dudes with great baseball minds.

Even though the Twins have possibly the softest schedule of anyone in the American League going forward, I still believe they are going to crash and burn without bullpen help and an injection of “league average” to the middle infield. Hopefully Grudzielanek can provide that.

That said, Freddy Sanchez (if healthy) is worth more than the $6, $6.5, and $7 million HE OFFERED the Pirates, and he’s still young enough where he can hold the fort down at 2B. But would signing Sanchez to an extension hinder the chances of signing Joe Mauer longterm? Or would NOT TRADING to improve the club turn Mauer off?

Anyways, I need a shave. Go Twins. Fight the good fight.

Edit: Giants just acquired Freddy Sanchez for Tim Alderson, a solid AA pitcher with great control. Probably compares to a guy like Slowey. Understandable why Twins didn’t pull trigger, but still disappointing. They have similar pitchers.

Tick, Tick, Tick…

Tuesday, July 28th, 2009

The Twins beat the White Sox last night, which is actually a BIG deal. Losing two of three, or hell, three of three from the ChiSox could have potentially crippled the Twins before the trade deadline.

That said, I would argue it’s disappointing the Twins have waited this long in the first place to improve their team.

And maybe I’m an idiot… But doesn’t it seem like the Twins always make trading sound like an impossible task? In reality, it’s not hard — and not expensive — to upgrade over Punto/Casilla/Tolbert. And it wouldn’t have been hard to trade for Cla Meredith, who’s been touted in this web (and Twins Weekly) space for weeks now.

Let’s not make trading sound harder than it is.

That said, one of my favorite beat writers, Joe Christensen of the Star Tribune provided this nugget on Monday regarding the Orlando Cabrera sweepstakes:

Heard today that Oakland has asked for Class AAA Rochester 3B Danny Valencia in return for SS Orlando Cabrera. Twins would never do that, but it was a reminder that Valencia’s name probably comes up frequently in trade talks. Valencia didn’t play for Rochester tonight, making me suspicious, but I checked and Valencia was sick after going 0-for-6 on Sunday.

Let me say this. I certainly don’t doubt Joe’s credibility, because he’s a fantastic reporter. He’s reporting what he was told. But I believe whoever told Joe the A’s want Danny Valencia for Orlando Cabrera is full of BS.

The A’s, possibly more than any team in baseball, know the value of a mediocre rent-a-player, which is what Orlando Cabrera is. Billy Beane wouldn’t disrespect the Twins (I don’t think…) by asking for one of their top three prospects.

Could it be the Twins front office is simply floating this information to ultimately make it look better when either A.) they don’t make a trade, or B.) they trade a lesser player?

Who knows.

But the clock is ticking. A trade should have been made by now. Bullpen help should have been here long ago. A middle infielder with a wOBA over .275 (preferably over .315) should have been here long ago.

Might head to the dome for tomorrow’s game against the ChiSox. I’d like to see some new Twins walking around in the clubhouse.

The OC

Sunday, July 26th, 2009

Rumors are flying that Billy Smith and company are in talks with Billy Beane’s A’s to bring SS Orlando Cabrera to town. I have extremely mixed, and mostly negative feelings about this, for multiple reasons.

Here are some scatter-brained thoughts on The OC:

- Orlando Cabrera is one of the most overrated players, offensively, of the past 5-10 years. Only twice since 2003 has he posted a wOBA over .316, and he has consistently provided less than league average production with the bat in terms of “runs created” (or wRAA, as I like to use).

- Some of you may ask, how is he overrated offensively? And why are you trying to use made-up stats like wOBA to trick us? Well, wOBA is currently the best measurement of offensive performance because it properly weights OBP and SLG (better than OPS). It’s as close as we have to a “magical” all-encompassing offensive stat. And the reason why OC produces low wOBAs every year is because he doesn’t hit for much power, and he doesn’t really draw many walks. He’s not Delmon Young or anything, but he certainly isn’t the ideal top-of-the-order candidate.

- OC’s value is at its highest when he’s covering a lot of ground on defense, which is something he’s struggled mightily with this season (possibly because he’s like 34 going on 35). OC’s UZR per 150 is -9.3 this year, which is by far his worst season defensively since UZR began measuring performance in 2002. He’s normally above average. Could this simply be a short-term lapse? Or is he losing range faster than Derek Jeter? A little birdie says OC has trouble fielding anything to his right….

- OC signed a one-year deal with Oakland during the offseason, and he has roughly $1.5 million left on that contract in 2009. Not a steep price. HOWEVER… OC has a clause in that contract that says the team that owns his rights at the end of the season CANNOT offer him arbitration if he is a Type A free agent. As of this weekend, according to the Elias Sports Bureau, OC is Type A. This is important. If the Twins acquired OC, in order to be compensated with a first round pick after the season when OC inevitably signs with a new team (like Torii Hunter), the Twins would have to offer him arbitration first. Since his contract doesn’t allow that, the Twins would get nothing in return when OC walks.

- The Twins have to assume OC will be a Type A free agent by season’s end, which means they really shouldn’t give up anything other than a low-level minor leaguer. Somebody without much upside. If they had a chance to gain a first round pick after OC’s departure, the price would be much steeper.

- OC isn’t an upgrade over Brendan Harris in my opinion. But for the sake of change, OC  may provide a sparkplug, which is something this team is desperate for.

- OC gives Gardy another excuse to NOT bat Joe Mauer second.

- Freddy Sanchez is a much more appealing option, and I have a hard time believing the Pirates wouldn’t take Casilla, Swarzak and something else. That said, if the Twins trade Swarzak, who steps into this trainwreck rotation? That’s why this whole scenario is such a mess…

- I know OC is currently hitting the crap out of the ball… A .400+ batting average over his last X amount of games. Whatever. He’s been in the league since 1997, and it would be stupid to put any stock into what he’s done over the last few weeks. The Twins know what they’re getting. OC’s “true” talent level is what it is. And it’s not that great.

- All in all, if the Twins can acquire OC for next to nothing, I’m fine with it. But don’t expect him to be much of an upgrade over Brendan Harris.

Fox 9 Sports On Demand

Tuesday, July 21st, 2009

Forgot to pimp my appearance with Jim Rich, Seth Kaplan and Darren Wolfson over at Fox 9 this week. They do a Sports On Demand show every Monday, and I was the guest this week!

About Last Night…

Monday, July 20th, 2009

OK, I’m not really sure what to say.

The home plate umpire (not going to bother looking up his name) should be ashamed of himself for missing that call at the end of the game. Simply pathetic. You are a Major League umpire. Do your job.

THAT SAID… The Twins should be even more ashamed of themselves for blowing a 12-2 lead against one of the worst offenses in baseball (dead last in AL OPS).

Ron Gardenhire should be ashamed of himself for his continued mismanagement of the bullpen. Over the last two games (both heartbreaking losses), R.A. Dickey, Bobby Keppel, and Kevin Mulvey (making MLB debut) pitched in high leverage TIGHT situations, while Joe Nathan sat in the bullpen. Nathan did not appear in either game, which is another reason why holding your closer out in “non-save” situations is mis-guided and irresponsible.

FSN should be ashamed of themselves for not treating this game like a bleepin’ funeral. I’ve been in the media long enough now (6 years) to know how fans feel after games like this. They don’t want to see the FSN crew (all 5 of you) smiling, laughing and joking about what happened. Fans are ready to jump off the ship, and you aren’t adding any value to the broadcast with those antics. Stop showing batting stance guy, and stop asking Gardenhire about “the positives”. God.

And, finally, the front office should be ashamed of themselves for not making a bullpen move at ANY POINT over the last 18 months. Dickey and Keppel were long overdue to serve up game-changing home runs, and it so happens they did it in back to back games. And I don’t want to see Kevin Mulvey making his MLB debut in the 8th inning of a one-run game IN WHICH YOU BLEW A 10-RUN LEAD.

For the record, Cla Meredith would have induced an inning-ending double play ball from Matt Holliday in the 7th. Too bad he’s pitching for the Orioles now.

Wake me when the joke is over.

Rant.

Sunday, July 19th, 2009

OK, let me start by saying I’m happy the Twins took two out of three from the Rangers. Well done. Keep winning series and you’ll probably win the division.

That said, I don’t think the Twins will win enough series over the next three months if they don’t stop banging their heads against the same walls.

Those heads, and those walls, refer to Alexi Casilla, R.A. Dickey, and the general tendency of the Twins’ front office to play it safe, rather than make an impactful move.

Let’s start with the move the Twins did make on Sunday — signing 2B Mark Grudzielanek to a minor league contract. Grudzielanek, 39, hasn’t played all year, but based on his track record in Kansas City the last three years, he probably still has gas left in the tank.

Since 2003, Grudzielanek has posted wOBAs of .347, .339, .321, .318, .336, and .329 — all right around league average, and all certainly above the  wOBA of a league-average second baseman.

He’s also shown above average range, even at his advanced age. So, if Grudzielanek is “the answer” at second base for the Twins down the stretch (and we’ll find out when he’s called up in a week or two), I wouldn’t be devastated.

Would I rather have Freddy Sanchez? Absolutely. And I have a hard time believing the Pirates wouldn’t go for a Casilla/Swarzak-type package.

I’ll be more upset if the Twins don’t trade for an impactful relief pitcher. And I’d put money on that not happening. I hope I’m wrong.

Speaking of Casilla… The Twins are either showcasing him as trade bait, or they are completely delusional.

Why delusional?

Because upon Casilla’s most recent call-up (are we to double digits yet?), he was immediately plugged into the #2 hole. Outside of a hot streak in May of 2008, what has Casilla done to earn such 2-hole security? And why does Ron Gardenhire REFUSE to simply move Mauer back into the 2-hole?

You could argue the Twins’ most productive offensive stretch (without looking) came when Span, Mauer, and Morneau hit at the top of the order. I’m not a huge fan of small sample sizes, so a three-week offensive splurge does nothing to influence me.

What DOES influence me, however, is logic. And logic says your number 1 and 2 hitters are table-setters for the middle of the order. I’m not sure where some of these old school guys learned how to pencil a lineup card, but having a power-less slap hitter who barely posts an OPS over .600 is NOT a table setter.

Those are called WASTED OUTS.

I know he’s still young, but at his best, Alexi Casilla is a league-average second baseman. And it’s been over a year, and multiple trips to AAA, since he’s played at his best.

The most annoying part is what Bill Smith told the Star Tribune after the Grudzielanek acquisition… that the Twins still believe Casilla can take the second base job and run with it. But even if he does take it and run, will he perform above the level of a league-average second baseman?

Unlikely. And that makes him expendable. So please, quickly trade him to a team like the Pirates before he’s too old to have “upside”.

That brings me to R.A. Dickey, and more mismanagement of the bullpen.

What would you say to me if I told you Pitcher ‘A’ posted ERAs over 5.00 and 6.00 in every season since 2003? Does that sound like somebody you’d want on your team?

Then, what if I told you Pitcher ‘A’ somehow had a sub-3.30 ERA heading into the middle of July of 2009? How comfortable would you feel, based on that pitcher’s track record, that he’d continue to avoid trainwrecking?

Baseball is about playing the percentages and using historical information to predict the future as accurately as possible. The teams that do so — whether in the middle of the game, in the front office, in the scouting department, in the statistical analysis department — will have a better chance to succeed.

The Twins signed Dickey to a minor league contract heading into spring training. OK, cool. Whatever. The problem? He posted a sub-3.00 ERA in March, and the Twins didn’t have the heart to tell him his track record suggested he was a fluke.

Of course, Dickey continued his streak into the season out of the bullpen, posting a sub-3.30 ERA into the All-Star break.

This is what we call “HOLY CRAP DICKY HAS A 3.30 ERA, WE ARE SO LUCKY, LET’S NOT MESS THIS UP”.

Gardenhire has instead chosen to test the waters even further. Dickey’s role was, and should always be, expendable mop-up man. But more and more over the past few weeks, Dickey has found himself pitching in critical late-game situations.

Sunday night was no exception. With the winning run on third base in the bottom of the 12th inning — and with Joe Nathan inexplicably still sitting in the bullpen — Dickey came on and promptly, but not unexpectedly, served up a game-winning walk-off homer to Ian Kinsler.

That’s right. With one of the best hitters in baseball (albeit slumping a bit) coming to the plate, the Twins chose to leave their best relief pitcher in the bullpen in favor of a guy who has essentially luckboxed his way through the first half of the season.

This is as midguided as it gets.

The old school baseball minds will say, “but it wasn’t a save situation, so they couldn’t bring Nathan in.”

B.S.

Saves are a joke. High leverage situations are not a joke. High leverage situations — the point(s) in a game where the current at bat, or situation, could alter the outcome — are as real as it gets. Saving your best relief pitcher for a future situation that may not even arise is pure insanity.

If “saves” didn’t exsist — if there was no such thing as a “save” — who would you have brought into the game to face Kinsler in that spot?

Joe Nathan.

God, I’m so worked up right now.

I love the Twins, but they just frustrate me sometimes.

impotenz selbsthilfe de potenzmittel hausmittelpotenzmittel von bayer erektionsstörungaphrodisiakum soja impotenz