Many Twins fans are wondering what the deal is with Scott Baker and Francisco Liriano, who both sport ERAs north of 6.00. Not exactly good for the resumes of two guys who were supposed to have top-of-the-rotation credentials heading into 2009.

The numbers are alarming. Let’s start with Scott Baker, who has been on of baseball’s most prominent fly ball pitchers over the last few years (45% career FBs allowed). This season, his fly ball numbers have gone up even more (51.2%).

Not a huge issue. Fly ball pitchers can still record outs, as long as the majority of those fly balls aren’t going over the fence… which is where Baker’s problem comes in. 16% of Baker’s fly balls allowed don’t come back. 16% of Baker’s fly balls are floating in orbit.

That 16% number ranks Baker in the bottom ten. Or top ten. However you want to look at it.

In other words, Baker allows a ton of fly balls, and a large chunk of those flies go over the wall. 14, to be exact, in 52.2 innings.

For Baker to be more effective, he must first induce a few more ground balls. He must also cut that HR/FB ratio almost in half.

As for Liriano, he’s gone from an elite groundball inducer in 2006 (pre-surgery) to a fly ball pitcher. In ’06, Liriano induced 55% ground balls, which is Brandon Webb-like, and so far this year he’s induced only 38% ground balls.

This is a huge difference, obviously, and it shows the colossal shift Liriano has undergone since going under the knife. He’s simply never going to go back to having a 95 mph fastball with an 88 mph slider. He’s lost 3-4 mph off each pitch.

And how about this… Liriano still throws his changeup at roughly the same rate (14%… slightly down from his 18% career rate), and he throws it at the same speed (84 mph). The problem? Obviously, an 84 mph changeup is impossible to hit when following a 95 mph fastball. It’s not so tough to hit when following a 91 mph fastball.

The contact numbers speak volumes as well. In 2006, opposing hitters made contact off Liriano only 65% of the time. In 2009, hitters make contact 79% of the time. He’s simply not missing as many bats.

So, in order to regain some semblance of effectiveness, Liriano MUST induce more ground balls. End of story. His fastball won’t gain any speed, and his stuff won’t become more electrifying.