K, so I’ve been super busy with a bunch of Minnesota Poker Magazine related stuff over the last month, and haven’t had as much time to devote to baseball. But, even though I haven’t blogged much, you can still listen to baseball opinions on Twins Weekly every Sunday at 5:00p, with the PowerTrip Morning Show every Monday morning at 8:25a, and with Paul Allen every Wednesday at 10:00a.

Had a chance to talk some baseball with Cory Cove this morning, and the topic — as usual lately — turned toward fixing the Twins. Even though the Twins are only one game under .500, they look like a team sputtering its wheels with a few major flaws.

Those flaws, in no particular order:
- Lack of production from the bottom of the order (Delmon, Tolbert, Gomez, Punto, etc.)
- Bullpen issues, with the exception of Guerrier, Mijares and Nathan
- Liriano’s underwhelming start, and other inconsistencies with the starting rotation

The bottom of the order issue could be solved, partially, when Denard Span returns from the DL from his ear infection and dizziness issues. Span will hit leadoff, and Brendan Harris will likely hit 2nd. I’d rather hit Harris 7th, because I love Mauer in the 2-hole behind Span, but Gardy will break up the lefties.

Harris has been fantastic so far this season, compared to the rest of the crop at SS and 2B for the Twins. His .291/.346/.407 line is well above average for Major League shortstops, which is where the Twins will likely use him the rest of the season.

* Side note, after talking with Span after last Thursday’s game, he says he’s not really close to 100% yet, but hopes to be within a couple weeks. He’ll start a rehab assignment later this week, potentially.

The front end of the bullpen is still a bit of a mess. The Twins designated Luis Ayala for assignment today, which is good because he’s an ineffective pitcher, but bad because the Twins’ front office is admitting failure once again. We’ll see how AAA call-up Bobby Keppel fares. Hopefully better than Sean Henn.

That brings us to the starting rotation. Specifically, Francisco Liriano, who hasn’t pitched anywhere near lights out since May 4th, when he went 7 1/3 at Detroit, striking out 9 while allowing only 2 earned runs.

If Liriano continues to struggle, I don’t see the Twins making the playoffs.

Why is he struggling? We know it’s not 2006 anymore, but Liriano seemed to have figured things out in 2008, posting sub-4.00 ERAs and FIPs. This year has been a complete trainwreck so far.

His walk rate is up, he’s allowing more home runs, and hitters are making more contact on pitches out of the strike zone (thanks, Fangraphs.com), which means his “chase” pitches probably aren’t as nasty.

The main culprit, however, seems to be Liriano’s changeup. Or lack thereof.

Using the Pitch F/X tool at Brooksbaseball.net, I compared Liriano’s lights out start in Detroit on May 4th to his dud against the Pirates at the Metrodome last week. Liriano threw 103 pitches against Detroit, and 104 pitches against Pittsburgh — 18 changeups in both games, but 51 fastballs against the Tigers as opposed to 68 against Pittsburgh. I wouldn’t read too much into the pitch selection, as that could be a product of the scouting report.

Instead, I’ve focused my attention on the pitch velocities. When Liriano wore a cape and blue tights in 2006 as the best pitcher in baseball, his average pitch speeds were 95, 88 and 83 mph for his fastball, slider and changeup, respectively. Those numbers have dropped to 91, 86 and 84 mph.

Now, going from a 12 mph difference between fastball and changeup to 7 mph is a big deal, but not as big of a deal as what has apparently happened between May 4 and last week. Against Pittsburgh last week, Liriano’s changeup averaged 86 mph. Assuming he wasn’t simply taking 5 mph off his fastball, or that Pitch F/X didn’t mis-interpret pitches, an 86 mph changeup is NOT effective.

I’m not pretending to play pitching coach or anything, but if Liriano has indeed lost his changeup, it’s no wonder why hitters are teeing off.

It seems every time I talk about the Twins on the radio, the conversation eventually turns toward Delmon Young. More specifically, ripping Delmon Young.

Before I direct readers to a great article/blog about Delmon, let me say this; he wouldn’t warrant so much ripping if A.) he was media savvy and charismatic, or B.) if he wasn’t so stubborn about changing his approach at the plate.

It seems as if Young is perfectly content squashing worms on his way to a punchless .275 batting average. But a .275 (or even .295) batting average with no OBP, no SLG and no defense means NOTHING.

The Twins are in a tough spot, because they can’t send Delmon down (out of options), can’t trade him (teams aren’t stupid), and can’t play him every day (negative EV).

On top of that, the Twins are mis-managing Carlos Gomez. His walk rate has nearly doubled this year, which shows he’s figuring things out at the plate. But for Gomez to truly take the next step as a hitter, he needs to feast on some minor league pitching. End of story.

Instead, he toils in the big leagues as a 4th outfielder, and it’s annoying.

Anyhow, before I blow a gasket, check out John Bonnes’ write-up on the aforementioned topics. Good stuff.

More on Delmon and Gomez this Sunday, 5:00, Twins Weekly. AM 1130 KFAN, and KFAN.com.

Many Twins fans are wondering what the deal is with Scott Baker and Francisco Liriano, who both sport ERAs north of 6.00. Not exactly good for the resumes of two guys who were supposed to have top-of-the-rotation credentials heading into 2009.

The numbers are alarming. Let’s start with Scott Baker, who has been on of baseball’s most prominent fly ball pitchers over the last few years (45% career FBs allowed). This season, his fly ball numbers have gone up even more (51.2%).

Not a huge issue. Fly ball pitchers can still record outs, as long as the majority of those fly balls aren’t going over the fence… which is where Baker’s problem comes in. 16% of Baker’s fly balls allowed don’t come back. 16% of Baker’s fly balls are floating in orbit.

That 16% number ranks Baker in the bottom ten. Or top ten. However you want to look at it.

In other words, Baker allows a ton of fly balls, and a large chunk of those flies go over the wall. 14, to be exact, in 52.2 innings.

For Baker to be more effective, he must first induce a few more ground balls. He must also cut that HR/FB ratio almost in half.

As for Liriano, he’s gone from an elite groundball inducer in 2006 (pre-surgery) to a fly ball pitcher. In ‘06, Liriano induced 55% ground balls, which is Brandon Webb-like, and so far this year he’s induced only 38% ground balls.

This is a huge difference, obviously, and it shows the colossal shift Liriano has undergone since going under the knife. He’s simply never going to go back to having a 95 mph fastball with an 88 mph slider. He’s lost 3-4 mph off each pitch.

And how about this… Liriano still throws his changeup at roughly the same rate (14%… slightly down from his 18% career rate), and he throws it at the same speed (84 mph). The problem? Obviously, an 84 mph changeup is impossible to hit when following a 95 mph fastball. It’s not so tough to hit when following a 91 mph fastball.

The contact numbers speak volumes as well. In 2006, opposing hitters made contact off Liriano only 65% of the time. In 2009, hitters make contact 79% of the time. He’s simply not missing as many bats.

So, in order to regain some semblance of effectiveness, Liriano MUST induce more ground balls. End of story. His fastball won’t gain any speed, and his stuff won’t become more electrifying.