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With Joe Nathan tearing his UCL and likely headed for Tommy John surgery, a Twins season that once looked as promising as any over the last two decades now appears to be in limbo.

Nathan is among the top three closers in baseball over the last five years (Mariano Rivera, Jonathan Papelbon), and replacing him will be a difficult task for Ron Gardenhire.

Of course, I would argue that the closer role is the most ridiculous, meaningless, and over-valued position in all of sports, but most Major League Baseball teams are still caught up in the baseball cultural pressure to pay one person $10 million per season to hold a 3-run lead.

Ideally, the best bullpen strategy would be to have a core group of anywhere between two and four relief pitchers (at least one lefty) who can mix and match, depending on lefty/righty and other match-up factors, from the 7th inning on.

In fact, there are numerous times throughout the season where a manager will summon an inferior relief pitcher (like Bobby Keppel) in a crucial situation in the 7th or 8th inning, only to see the game implode. But because baseball culture says to ONLY bring closers in for the 9th inning, it’s sacrilege to do anything different.

For more on this, Joe Sheehan wrote an amazing article three years ago that details a late-inning situation between the Indians and Tigers (if this is subscription-based, I apologize).

Anyhow, because Ron Gardenhire is highly unlikely to deviate from the baseball cultural norm, we should probably start looking at the Twins’ new closer candidates.

I’m sure over the next few weeks you’ll hear baseball talking heads discuss how “mental toughness” is the most important factor when it comes to closing. Mental toughness is obviously important if you are a closer, but mental toughness is also critical in any sport at any position that requires a player to operate under pressure.

The problem is that measuring mental toughness is almost impossible. For instance, how “mentally tough” is Brad Lidge? He can be the best closer in baseball one year, then completely melt down the next. What about Jonathan Papelbon? Regarded as one of the best closers in baseball over the last three years, but he blew a huge save in the playoffs last year.

The first step to picking out a closer is to find a guy whose skillset matches that of previously successful closers. THEN we’ll worry about mental toughness after that.

James Bond might be the most mentally tough fictional person in the world, but I doubt he can blow a fastball by Kevin Youkilis with runners in scoring position…

Let’s take a peak:

Traits of top closers, historically:

1.) Ability to limit home runs. Generally, if a relief pitcher is allowing more than .8 home runs per 9 innings, he’s much more likely to blow saves. End of story. There are almost no exceptions to this rule.

2.) Strikeout-to-walk ratio. Mariano Rivera is the king of K/BB ratio (8:1 over the last two years, which is ridiculous). Anything over 2.5:1 is pretty solid, generally speaking. Joe Nathan was almost always over 4:1.

3.) High K totals. Most of the top closers in baseball also strike out at least 8 or 9 batters per nine innings. Of course, there are some exceptions, although some would argue Ryan Franklin’s 2009 season was somewhat “fluky.” When pitching in “high leverage” situations, where even one extra base runner can drastically alter the result of a one or two-run game in the 9th inning, having a closer that avoids contact is essential.

4.) There are other isolated traits, such as pitchers who induce a ton of ground balls, but quite frankly, I don’t want my closer pitching to contact. That opens too many doors for bad luck to creep in. I want my closer to strike people out.

Some folks might ask about trading for somebody outside the organization, but the Twins are highly unlikely to add salary.

So who is the best in-house option for the Twins? Let’s break it down.

* First of all, knowing Gardenhire, we can eliminate Anthony Slama, Rob Delaney, Loek Van Mil, and any other young pitcher who may be worth considering. Gardy is grizzled. He wants “experience.”

Matt Guerrier? Guerrier had an awesome 2009 season, posting a 2.36 ERA and his lowest walk rate (1.89 BB/9) ever. But Guerrier doesn’t tally very many strikeouts (never more than 6.96 per 9 innings), and he historically allows WAY too many HRs to be a closer (22 over the last two years, in fewer than 150 innings).

Jesse Crain? Talk about an enigma. Crain was dubbed as the closer-in-waiting back in 2004-2005… But we’re still waiting… Crain was actually pretty solid down the stretch last year, but his control is WAY too sporadic, and he still doesn’t strike out enough batters for my taste to be an adequate closer. Crain does a nice job limiting home runs (only 13 allowed since 2006), but I don’t see him as a good fit to close.

Pat Neshek? Maybe if this was 2007… But Neshek is coming off serious surgery of his own. Let’s give him a couple months before thrusting him into the closer role. Unless he goes lights out throughout the spring… Then maybe.

Jose Mijares? Without a doubt, one of the most talented relievers in the organization. He has a track record of high strikeout numbers, and his control certainly isn’t terrible. And he’s likely to improve entering his second full season. But there are two problems with making Mijares the new closer. 1.) He’s prone to giving up home runs, and this stems from his early minor league days as well. 2.) He’s projected as the only lefty in the Twins bullpen. If that’s the case, it wouldn’t make sense to save him for the 9th inning. As the only lefty, Mijares is much more valuable as a “roamer” between the 6th and 9th innings.

Jon Rauch? Rauch actually closed for the Nationals in 2008, saving 18 games. He has “experience,” which helps his case with Gardy, and his peripheral numbers have been pretty solid over the last few years — good control (fewer than 3 BB/9 over the last three years), and decent K numbers, but not spectacular (anywhere between 6.3 and 8.5 K/9). Unfortunately, Rauch can definitely fall victim to the long ball from time to time, although not nearly as often as Guerrier.

Francisco Liriano? Fits the bill, but would much rather see him in the starting rotation.

Others? Clay Condrey? Lowest strikeout totals of any reliever in baseball over the last two years, but he induces a ton of ground balls. Not a terrible option, especially with a solid infield defense. Glen Perkins? May actually land a roster spot with Nathan out, but still way too many question marks with injury and productivity to be considered as a closer. Brian Duensing, Anthony Swarzak, Jeff Manship? Highly unlikely. Although one of these guys may land a bullpen role as a result of the open roster spot.

My rankings, based on the above tidbits and “gut” feeling, I guess:

1.) Jon Rauch
2.) Jose Mijares
3.) Pat Neshek
4.) Matt Guerrier
5.) Jesse Crain
6.) Slama/Delaney/etc… Somebody young and new.

Seth Stohs, Seth Kaplan and myself talked Twins baseball on the Fox 9 web show earlier today. It was Fox 9’s version of an awkward “Seth Sandwich”…

The show is broken into five parts:

I just spent the better part of two weeks in casino/poker-land up at Grand Casino Mille Lacs for the Minnesota State Poker Tour event, but with baseball season quickly approaching, I’m now in the process of dusting off the old sabermetric thinking cap.

Sort of.

As I mentioned a few months ago, I will no longer be doing player projections, nor will I be offering ridiculously in-depth sabermetric articles like I did in the past. It’s simply too time consuming.

But for everyone looking to gain an edge in their fantasy baseball leagues, or for people just looking for more interesting and accurate ways of predicting how players will perform, let me point you in the right direction.

BABIP. And BABIP’s offspring, LDBABIP, GBBABIP, and FBBABIP. (and BABIP’s step-son, BuntBABIP).

BABIP is “Batting Average on Balls In Play,” which is basically defined as “any batted ball.” LD, GB and FB are line drives, ground balls, and fly balls.

By now, the majority of MLB front offices pay close attention to stats like BABIP and its effects on offensive numbers (and in a pitcher’s case, how “lucky” or “unlucky” he is).

Why is BABIP important? Because it weeds out strikeouts and walks, which are both hitter skillsets that affect on base percentage and batting average, and tells you how often a hitter successfully reaches base when he makes contact. It also helps us pinpoint exactly what may have gone right or wrong for any particular hitter.

Let’s use Nick Punto as an example. Punto’s batting average and overall value as a hitter seem to fluctuate every other year. He was solid in 2006, terrible in 2007, solid in 2008, terrible in 2009, etc. Some people might suggest Punto is “due” in 2010, based on his “odd year/even year” track record. This is obviously laughable. His odd/even year pattern is a complete fluke.

A hitter of Punto’s skillset — slap-type hitter with speed and very little warning-track power — will historically see 27-29% of his ground balls go through for base hits, 13-16% of his fly balls drop for hits, and 69-73% of his line drives fall for hits.

In 2006, which was Punto’s breakout year offensively (.290 batting average), he saw 28% of his ground balls go for hits, 18% of his flies drop for hits, and 71% of his line drives drop in. His overall BABIP was .332, which is above league average.

In 2007, only 23% of Punto’s ground balls seeped through, along with 14% of his flies and 58% of his line drives. He finished the season with a .210 batting average.

Punto’s 2008 BABIP numbers were nearly identical to his 2006 numbers, and his average rose to .284 as a result.

In 2009, Punto’s batting average dropped back down to .228, so it comes as no surprise that only 20% of his ground balls went through for hits, along with 11% of his flies. 78% of his line drives fell in, which is actually quite fortunate, but not enough to make up for his low GBBABIP and FBBABIPs.

Does this all make sense? BABIP, walk rate, and strikeout rate are all connected on a string to form on base percentage.

In 2009, Nick Punto drew more walks (14%) and had more line drives fall in for hits (78%) than at any point in his entire career! This should have translated to a fantastic (for Punto, anyways) offensive season, but it didn’t.

So why did Punto have such a hard time buying base hits on ground balls and fly balls compared to league average and compared to his track record? To be honest, I really have no idea. Maybe he was hitting fewer HARD ground balls and more choppers. He certainly wasn’t hitting more pop-ups (8.6%, which is lower than his 11% career rate).

Where am I going with all of this? Really, nowhere. I just wanted to point out that you can find awesome information like this at websites like Baseball-Reference.com and Fangraphs.com.

In a perfect world, Nick Punto should reach base on 27% of his grounders, 14% of his flies, and 72% of his line drives, which would put his overall BABIP at about .325. Assuming a “normalized” strikeout rate, Punto should be a .270-.275ish hitter who draws a ton of walks.

I actually had a conversation with an MLB exec about this exact topic last offseason. We talked about Nick Swisher’s abysmal .219 batting average with the White Sox in 2008. I came to the conclusion that Swisher’s dropoff in productivity was due ENTIRELY to only 15% of his ground balls trickling through for hits. This is UNREALISTICALLY low for any player, even for a masher like Swisher who only sees 21% of grounders seep through during his career.

Of course, Swisher saw 20% of his ground balls go through for hits in 2009, which brought his batting average back to .249, where it belongs.

So did the White Sox not realize this? Why did they sell low on Swisher? Or did they simply dislike Swisher’s weird facial hair choices?

I don’t necessarily know WHY only 15% of Swisher’s ground balls went through for hits in 2008. That’s for a hitting coach to decide I guess.

But analyzing BABIP is fun. You should try it sometime.

Today is Nick Punto Day. But because I’ve been swamped with preparations for the Minnesota State Poker Tour event at Grand Casino Mille Lacs this coming week, I didn’t have time to pump out an intense breakdown of Nick Punto’s WAR (or lack thereof).

Instead, I leave you with this…

The Twins front office has taken a ton of heat during the Bill Smith era, and most of it was plenty justified (see: Johan Santana trade, Matt Garza/Jason Bartlett trade, Livan Hernandez, etc.).

Well, today I am more than happy to tip my cap to the Twins front office for a FANTASTIC offseason that culminated with the signing of second baseman Orlando Hudson. According to the Star Tribune’s Joe Christensen, Hudson’s deal is worth $5 million, which brings the Twins’ estimated 2010 payroll to roughly $96 million.

(Actually… the offseason will culminate if and when Joe Mauer signs a contract extension… but that’s bound to happen soon)

Before signing Hudson, the Twins added Jim Thome ($1.5 million), and J.J. Hardy ($5.1 million, avoided arbitration). They also re-signed Carl Pavano for $7 million, which may seem a little steep to some, but rest assured — Pavano is better than his 2009 ERA indicates.

With Hardy at shortstop and Hudson at second base, the Twins are no longer desperate for help at third base. A combination of Brendan Harris and Nick Punto will suffice, until Danny Valencia is ready to join the Big Club.

I just heard a few groans from the “we hate Nick Punto” section, but in reality, if the Twins are rolling out a lineup that consists of Hardy, Hudson, Denard Span, Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Jason Kubel, Michael Cuddyer, and occasionally Jim Thome, having Punto hit ninth is hardly cause for concern. They need Punto’s glove more than anything else — despite Hudson’s four gold gloves, Hudson has rated below average defensively every year since 2005.

By increasing the payroll by roughly $25 million, the Twins move into the upper 1/3 of Major League Baseball. Somewhere between 9th and 13th is probably accurate. And why should Twins fans expect anything different? With a new stadium, a successful, winning ball club, and plenty of public interest, the Twins don’t need to sit at the bottom of the payroll rankings.

What’s even better is how the Twins front office went after the two best-possible middle infield options this offseason (in my opinion) for their respective prices/values. Hardy’s offensive numbers will undoubtedly rebound to some degree, but his defense more than covers for his $5.1 million price tag. And Hudson’s .353 wOBA over the last three years is 6th-best among MLB second basemen, behind Chase Utley, Dustin Pedroia, Ian Kinsler, Brian Roberts and Dan Uggla (thanks, Parker).

Plus, with Hudson, the Twins not only found one of the best-hitting second basemen in baseball, they also found a perfect right-handed 2-hole option. You all know how obsessed I am with loading the top of the order with high-OBP guys. Well, Span+Hudson is plenty of OBP for Mauer, Morneau and company to feast on.

Twins fans, go freaking crazy. This is what an awesome offseason feels like.